NFL underdog picks for Week 13 from FairwayJay
The NFL Week 13 schedule includes six division games and the Buffalo Bills kicked if off Thursday with a 24-10 win over the New England Patriots in an AFC East match-up. I personally bet a rare road favorite and took a piece of the Bills (9-3), who now have a half game lead over the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East.
NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks
New York (+2.5) vs Washington – Giants moneyline +115
Los Angeles (+7) vs Seattle – Rams moneyline +275
Washington (-2) at New York
More leading online sportsbooks are down to Washington -2 or -1.5, but some U.S. Sportsbooks like Caesars and BetMGM are still at -2.5. The Giants are clearly a teaser option as well taking them above +7. The Commanders (7-5) offense DVOA is still in the bottom quartile of the league both rush (No. 25) and pass (No. 26). A few extra days rest and prep for the Giants off a Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas should help the G-men (7-5) regroup after losing three of their last four games. Washington is 6-1 since Week 6. We know they are not that good, and the Commanders are averaging -0.036 EPA/dropback since week 6 (26th). Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke will be under more pressure this week as the Giants defense leads the league with a 42.3% blitz rate and they have a strong interior pass rush but are missing two starters in the secondary.
Seattle (-7) at LA Rams
Despite the uncertainty at QB for the Rams (3-8), and both top WR’s out including Cooper Kupp, we’re going to roll with the Rams and suck it up even if QB Bryce Perkins plays for Los Angeles. Yes, LA has lost five straight games and failed to score more than 20 points in any of them. But Seattle is dealing with illness (bug) throughout their locker room. The Seahawks (6-5) offensive DVOA numbers are stronger, and they lead the league in offensive points per play. But I like the Rams defense to keep this game close with the Rams rush defense DVOA No. 5 to the Seahawks No. 19. Bettors seem to be looking past the Seahawks dismal defense that just gave up nearly 500 yards and 200 rushing yards in regulation to the Raiders before RB Josh Jacobs broke off an 86 yard TD run in overtime to sink the Seahawks 40-34. Laying 7 on the road? Imagine what this line would have been Week 1, Rams by 7? We adjust to injuries, performance and stats, but this is still too much to ask of Seattle.