NFL Week 12 Recap: What bettors learned

Well we can safely say that the offenses won Week 11 in the 2022 NFL season. Though the totals went 8-8, seven games had 49 or more points scored. But, the Niners went under for the seventh time this year and the scoring drought continued for the Rams and Broncos. Denver has gone so far downhill that their game next week against the Chiefs got flexed OUT of primetime.

Scoring

The first half of the NFL season saw a disproportionate amount of games go under the closing total. Overall, only ten teams have gone over the total more than half the time this season. And, having a top offense doesn’t even guarantee success going over the total. The Chiefs lead the league, averaging 29.6 PPG, but they are 5-6 on the over/under board and the 4-7 Chicago Bears have gone over the total in eight of 12 games! This week thee are three games with totals over 50 – Chiefs/Bengals is 52.5, Chargers/Raiders is 50.5 and Jaguars/Lions is at 51.5. Sure the law of averages and the last two weeks point to totals are going over more frequently, but both the Jaguars and Lions have only gone over four times (each) in 11 games, while Vegas is one of the few teams with more games over the total, than under, in 2022.

The MVP race

With just 6 games remaining in the season, the race for Most Valuable Player is down to just a few quarterbacks, none of which are named Brady or Rogers. Once we get to the last month of the NFL season, props for MVP are close to being finalized and generally offer little value. Bettors interested in these types of wagers are urged to get to plays in within the next week or so.

After the last few weeks, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the clear leader. Sportsbooks around the world have Mahomes favored as high as -170 at PointsBet, to a more reasonable lines of -140 at FanDuel. He has been great and the Chiefs are the current favorite at the top sportsbooks to win SBLVII. After Mahomes, the closest candidates in oddsmakers’ minds are the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (+350) and Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa (+600). Every other potential MVP is 11-1 or better, including pre-season favorite Josh Allen, who is the #4 choice at +1100. There is little value in Mahomes, but if he continues to play at a such a high level, 12 TDs vs 4 INTs (QBR 109+) last 5 games, and if the Chiefs continue their current 5-0 run, his odds will only get shorter and may get as high as -300 before the end of the season.

A possible longshot may be Niners’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco is playing great ball and deep playoff run could put JimmyG closer to the MVP leaders. Over the same five game span, Garappolo has fired nine TD vs. just one interception. He’s completed more than 70% of his passes and San Francisco is everybody’s flavor of the month. JimmyG could end up with 4000 passing yards! Right now he is listed at a whopping 120-1 at FanDuel.

Bet or Fade

Last week, we added the Cardinals and Broncos to out list of teams to fade looking ahead in 2022. This week there are two more additions and another team to watch and bet in the coming weeks.

Many had high hopes for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Doug Pederson took over the team and expectations had grown for 2022. The team started 2-2, but five straight losses doomed any hopes of making the playoffs. And, despite Pederson’s extremely lucky 2-point conversion for a win last week vs Baltimore, this team is just 4-7 and 4-7 ATS. Makes them tough to bet on. Their upcoming games are at Detroit, where they are now a -1.5 point favorite, and at Tennessee, home vs. Dallas and then on the road again to the Meadowlands in late December to take on the Jets. FADE

It’s time to stick a fork in the New Orleans Saints. No Breese. No Sean Payton. No real shot for the Saints. The “WhoDat” faithful have to be saying “Who Dis?” as their team is just 2-5 in their last seven, a dismal 4-8 ATS overall and 0-5 ATS on the road! Aging Andy Dalton is certainly not the answer, even temporarily for New Orleans. The Saints go on the road three of the next four weeks, including at Tamp Bay on Sunday night where they are 3.5 point dogs. FADE

It’s been an up and down year for the New England Patriots, running stride-for-stride with QB Mac Jones, who has been banged up and not the 2021 version of himself. The team is 6-2 ATS over the last two months and Jones had his best game of the season last week. Much of what is keeping the Patriots in the playoff hunt is their defense. Still, New England find themselves in the basement of the AFC East. Buffalo heads into Foxboro for a TNF showdown this week as four point favorites. The Bills offense has not looked the same since the team’s bye in Week 7 and Allen seems to be bothered by his ailing elbow – definitely a game to watch. The following three weeks, the Patriots get out of the cold NE and go to Arizona and Vegas before coming home vs. Cincinnati. Then Miami comes North on New Year’s Day. It’s not crazy to see the Patriots at 10-6 in the last week vs. the Bills clawing for a playoff spot. BET