NFL Week 13 Recap: What bettors learned

With just a handful of weeks left in the 2022 NFL regular season, the best teams are hitting their stride and other have all but thrown in the towel. But Week 13 saw bad injuries to two more starting quarterbacks and now the playoff hopes of both the 49ers and Ravens are in doubt.

QB Injuries

Starting QBs going down this late in the season certainly would spell doom for almost any team, but, when Lamar Jackson went down Ravens fans and bettors knew they were in trouble. Sure, Tyler Huntley came in and went 27-32, but no TDs, one sack and two INTs are not a good line. Neither was the final score vs. the Broncos, 10-9. This team is built around Jackson and without his legs and playmaking ability, Baltimore went just 1-4 last season. But the latest is that Jackson will be out approximately 1-3 weeks and coach Jim Harbaugh stated he will be week-to-week when asked about Jackson’s return.

This week the Ravens head to Pittsburgh as 2.5 point dogs. The Steelers have won two of their last three. Baltimore was just 1-4 without Lamar Jackson in 2021. The total is the interesting line in this game. It has dropped to 37 at the top U.S. sportsbooks and these two teams are a combined 9-15 to the under this season.

San Francisco has had some terrible luck with injuries the last few years and after #1 QB Trey Lance went down in the second game of the season, they turned to Jimmy Garoppolo, who they tried to unload all off-season. luckily, that has worked out for the 8-4 Niners, who have been getting alot of attention in the Super Bowl betting futures. Well, JimmyG broke his foot last Sunday and people are still talking of a San Francisco Super Bowl run!

After reeling off four straight wins everybody loved the Niners last week vs the Dolphins. And they rewarded bettors with a 33-17 win and cover. But really, it was the 49er defense. Two interceptions in the third quarter of Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa gave the Niner faithful hope for the playoffs withough Garoppolo. In addition, Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy came in for San Francisco and threw 2TDs. They sit atop the NFC West and have a soft schedule the rest of the way. They are still the #4 favorites to win SBLVII at FanDuel and a whopping -400 to win the NFC West.

The poor Los Angeles Rams. Suffering through the worst Super Bowl hangover ever, the Rams are now just 3-9 and the word is that QB Matthew Stafford is most likely done for the season. With backup John Wolford under center, the Rams are going to be underdogs all season. And to make matters worse, season ticket holders could be seen in LA lining up things to do on Sundays for the holiday season when they heard of the Rams pick up of Baker Mayfield off of the waiver wire. He might even play tomorrow night vs the Raiders. Egads! The Raiders have won three straight and are 6 point favorites at SoFi stadium on TNF.

Bet or Fade

Obviously we are going to fade the Rams the rest of the way. But it is also time to look at some of the other teams that are only playing for draft picks at this point.

Houston Texans
Let’s face it, the Texans are vying to get the #1 pick in the draft. But, with just one win, they are somehow 4-7-1 ATS. They face some stiff competition in the coming weeks – at Dallas, at home vs. Kansas City and at Tennessee. In all of these games they are going to be huge, double-digit underdogs. Dallas has a huge edge this season with 333 points for and just 206 against, a 127 points-plus. They are favored by 16.5 on Sunday. The next week Houston heads to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs, who are also 3-8-1 ATS and shockingly 1-4-1 ATS at home. As the season grinds to a close, watch the big pointspreads and look for times to BET the Texans plus the points (just not this week).

Cleveland Browns
The Browns had high hopes, but are just 5-7 and going nowhere. But, they did get Deshuan Watson back last week. He was expectedly rusty, but the Browns did look like they had some life with him under center. Cleveland has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six weeks and are 6 point dogs this weekend at Cincinnati this week. This is the same Bengals team that got crushed by the Browns 32-13 on Halloween. The Browns are somehow still in Wild Card contention, so look for them to play to win in the coming weeks. BET

New Orleans Saints
Certainly, aging Andy Dalton is not the answer in the Big Easy. And, Taysom Hill is not an NFL QB. New Orleans started out with a win, but have been dismal since, going 3-9 with a two wins ATS in the last five games. Over those same 5 games, the Saints have managed 20 points or more just once. They looked terrible against Tampa Bay last week and bettors and WhoDat faithful should expect more of that in 2022. FADE