Super Bowl 57 Prop Picks and Best BetsThe final game of the 2022 NFL season is here and the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is sure to make Super Bowl LVII a memorable one. The Super Bowl for sports bettors is like New Year’s Eve for drinkers – everybody gets involved, but most are just rookies. This amount of ‘dumb money’ can be used as an advantage for seasoned bettors making Super Bowl 57 prop picks. The game line is super sharp with the Eagles as a 1.5 point favorite ad the total at 51, so the huge menu of prop bets for SBLVII is what I am focusing on.
If you read my article offering proven rules for Super Bowl prop betting, you have to make sure that your Super Bowl prop picks are aligned with your view of the game – high scoring vs low scoring, who wins the game, winning margin and so forth. Let’s take a look at a few of the prop bets and try to cash in on Super Bowl Sunday.
Time of Possession:
This prop looks at which team has the ball for longer in the game. The current line at FanDuel has the Eagles at -144 with the Chiefs coming back at +116. This ultra-wide line is definitely telling us something here, so let’s look a little more closely. The Eagles won 14 games this season and held the time of possession advantage in nine of them. In games Philly won by less than 10 points, they had a significant advantage on the clock, courtesy of the offense. The Chiefs averaged 27:78 minutes of possession in all of their games, but we threw out the anomaly of 41+ minutes they had vs. the fading Titans in week 8. The Chiefs won the time of possession battle in both of their playoff wins, but the Eagles had huge advantages in both of their playoff wins.
Let’s face it, the team that wins in the NFL generally has the ball more during the game, but SBLVII is most likely not going to be a grind-it-out kind of affair and if it is, again, advantage Eagles.
Lay the juice and take Philadelphia to win the time of possession battle in Super Bowl 57.
These two teams were #1 and two in sacks this season. Philadelphia generated a whopping 70 sacks this season to lead the league, third-most in NFL history, while the Chiefs recorded 55 sacks, led by Defensive Player of the Year nominee, defensive tackle Chris Jones. The Eagles averaged more than four sacks a game throughout the season, so the total number of sacks for the Birds at 2.5 looks very appealing. Patrick Mahomes was sacked 26 times this season and Tampa Bay beat the Chiefs in SBLV by applying pressure and sacked the K.C. QB three times.
The Eagles were the first team in NFL history with four players with 10-plus sacks in a season, led by sack machine Hassan Reddick (16) and were able to get 50 of their league leading sacks using just the front four.
Over 2.5 sacks for Philadelphia is again priced high at -150, but if the Birds are going to have a shot at winning SBLVII, they have to get to Mahomes. Lay the juice here again with 2.5 sacks. Interestingly, total sacks by both teams is set at 5.5, with under as the players choice.
Mahomes Touchdown Passes
The number here is low, like strangely low. Patrick Mahomes received the MVP award last night and didn’t get that by not throwing TDs. He fired 41 during the season, including two in each playoff game. Yet, oddsmakers have the line set at over/under 1.5 TDs. Well, some do – PointsBet is offering this prop at 2.5 TDs (under -210) and Bet365 has the juice on under 2.5 pumped up to -220.
We going to call this our ‘no-brainer prop wager’ and take over 1.5 TDs, laying some big juice at -188 at FanDuel as our Best Prop Bet for Super Bowl 57.
People love to bet on who will score the first touchdown as the odds are usually pretty long. But for the Super Bowl, there is a prop for Position to Score First Touchdown at several of the top U.S. outlets. Of course the short odds are on running back (+175), wide receiver (+200) and tight end (+310), but what about quarterback? Jalen Hurts scored 13 TDs in just 15 games and even Patrick Mahomes got into the act with four scores. Hurts is the 2nd favorite to score first at +600. But, we’ll take a little extra oomph in this prop and at the same 6-1, we’ll sprinkle a few dollars on either QB to score the first TD.
Anytime and first TD is offered for every NFL game, so these props are not unique to the Super Bowl. We are looking at the position to score the first TD, so let’s take a shot with an anytime TD scorer for SBLVII. For any of the players you think will score the odds are pretty short, but Travis Kelce at -135 is quite appealing. So is Jalen Hurts at -125. But this is Anytime TD, so assuming that multiple touchdowns will be scored, lets look at a couple of wagers here. We do like laying a bit of juice on Kelce, but also look to get some odds with Eagles WR A.J. Brown. Brown was a monster for the Birds this season with nearly 1500 yards receiving an 11 TDs! Priced for an anytime TD at PointsBet at +130, we’ll also take A.J. Brown as an anytime TD scorer.
Crazy Prop Bet
It’s always fun to take a shot at the bookmaker and with hundreds of props on the Super Bowl betting board, there are a few that piqued my interest. Let’s fire on one offered at PointsBet for First Accepted Penalty. The favorite is holding at +300. But the two that revolve around the snap of the ball are both +450! False Start and/or Offside/Encroachment/Neutral Zone Infraction are the two I am looking at. At 4.5 to 1, either the defense or offense jumping before the snap will pay out pretty well. With all of the hype, excitement and pressure of the Super Bowl, I’m going to take False Start for a few bucks to cash in better than 4-1 odds.
Good Luck with all of your Super Bowl wagers and prop bets and above all enjoy what should be a great Championship game.