We said it in last week’s recap and it bears repeating – the NFL is a week-to-week betting exercise. Nothing could be more obvious after another week of losses by the Packers and Buccaneers and a huge upset by the Bears on Monday Night Football.
The Return of Tua and Dak
Last week saw the return of two quarterbacks known by just their three-letter first names.
Tua (Tagovailoa) returned from a three-week hiatus due to an awful concussion that has the NFL redoing its head trauma policies to face Pittsburgh. The Fins were 0-3 during Tua’s absence and did get an ugly win in Week 7, but the oft-injured QB was helped by several dropped interceptions by the Steeler’s D. Tua is going to have to play better for the Dolphins to contend in the AFC East. Luckily for Miami, the Dolphins head to Detroit this week to face one of the league’s worst defenses. Quarterbacks have a 102 QBR against the Lions and only one team (Houston) gives up more yard per game on the ground. The Dolphins are now a 3.5 point favorite at most sportsbooks despite just one road win in 2022.
It was gloom and doom the Cowboys when star QB Dak Prescott went down in the Week 1 opener vs. the Buccaneers. Somehow the ‘Boys managed to go 4-2 on the back of backup Cooper Rush and played well in Prescott’s absence. So when Dak returned for the Cowboys everyone expected a huge bump in the Dallas offense. That never materialized last Sunday versus the aforementioned worst defense in the league and the Cowboys beat Detroit 24-6. The offense was on life support behind Dak until the second half, but the revival was due to the Cowboys defense, which garnered five takeaway in just a half of football. Dallas returns home as huge 9.5-point favorites against the Bears, who are riding high after their big MNF win, but they are likely to be without Ezekiel Elliott. Unless they can somehow jump-start the Zeke-less offense, a double digit spread may be hard to overcome for the ‘Boys and bettors.
Poor Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan owns pretty much every record at the QB position for the Atlanta Falcons. But, the Falcons moved on from the 37 year-old and Ryan landed with the Colts, who needed someone after the failed Carson Wentz experiment. The Indy offense has not performed under Ryan, but that’s not entirely his fault. Star Back Johnathan Taylor has not produced, due in part to a pretty poor offensive line. Taylor was the leading rusher in the NFL last season and the Colts were league leaders on the ground. But this year, the Colts rank 30th in the NFL with 567 total rushing yards. In addition, Ryan has thrown 9 TDs vs nine INTs and has been a fumbling machine. And now . . . Ryan has a hurt shoulder.
Enter last year’s 6th round pick Sam Ehlinger. He had a solid preseason, but is not going to turn around the 29th ranked offense in the NFL. He has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game and is still behind an offensive line that has allowed 24 sacks through seven games. Still, the Colts are favored at home this weekend vs. the Commanders. The total is the lowest on the board at just 39.5 points. The Colts have gone under the total 6 times in 2022 and Washington has gone under 4 times. So, the question is, “Are either of these teams going to score enough to get to 40?”
Week 8 Bet or Fade?“
This new section of the weekly NFL betting recap is a guide for which teams to look at in the upcoming week. These are not free picks or endorsements to wager, but rather a brief look at potential wagers or teams to bet against and games to avoid.
The Cincinnati Bengals have found their groove after opening the season 0-2 and have put up 30 and 35 points in their last two wins. They’ve reeled off 5 straight ATS wins and face a Browns team that can only find ways to lose games. BET
New York fans and bettors have been overjoyed this season with the Jets and Giants. The NY Giants are 6-1 SU and ATS and QB Daniel Jones has been on a roll and is 6th overall in QBR. The G-Men are dog on the road at Seattle, despite a 3-0 road record. No respect for a Giants team that could still be a one loss team in December. BET
The Jets are the surprise of the AFC and are firing on all cylinders, with four consecutive wins SU and ATS. In that run, they’ve taken out the Dolphins (minus Tua) at home and the Broncos and Packers on the road. Yet, they too are dog this week, at home vs. the Patriots on short week after a tough loss. No respect here either. BET
Way too many people are saying that Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ QB Tom Brady is done. Rightfully so as the team is in a free fall, having lost 4 of their last five and Brady is getting older every day. Yet, they are still favored at home against the Ravens this weekend on a short week. FADE
Watching Aaron Rodgers, both on the field and off, gets more painful every year. A sputtering offense, a quarterback needing a reality check and a prime time matchup against the best the AFC has to offer don’t bode well for Packers fans or bettors this weekend. The line has risen to Packers +10.5 vs the Bills Sunday Night. AVOID