As expected, the Wild Card round was full of surprises and covers by four underdogs led the way. Both the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars earned SU underdog wins defeating the ever-fading Vikings and Chargers. But, that was the Wild Card and with just four games this weekend, it may be a whole different story. I’ll take a look at some NFL Divisional Round betting trends below and for the games this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
This game opened with the Chiefs as 10 point favorites, dropped as low as 8 at many outlets and is now sitting at -8.5 points at most of the top online sportsbooks. You’ll see reports that QB Trevor Lawrence is on the questionable list for Jacksonville, but don’t buy into it, he’s been on that list with a toe injury for weeks and plays every weekend. Keep in mind, though Jacksonville is on a massive six game winning streak, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Jags. Kansas City is also 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their past 8 playoff games as favorites at Arrowhead.
Line: Chiefs (-10), Total 51
Final Score: Chiefs 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are really the one surprise to see here. Behind a rookie Head Coach, with an average quarterback, they dominated most of the Vikings game last weekend, winning SU as a 2.5 point dogs. The Giants have been cover machines this season, going 14-4 (77.8%) ATS, including 7-1 on the road, to lead the NFL. But, the Eagles are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home vs. the G-Men and have gone 7-1 ATS in Divisional Round games, winning six.
Both of these games feature teams that are rolling, despite struggles during the regular season vs teams that have had short odds to win Super Bowl LVII all season.
Underdogs have covered often in the divisional round. Money line betting on the favorite is a solid angle, but underdogs consistently cover the spread. Over the last 20 divisional rounds, underdogs have done very well ATS, going 39-29-1 ATS.
But, many will look at last year’s Divisional Round and see that away teams dominated last season, going 3-1 SU and ATS. Still, recent history tells us that home teams went 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS in the previous four Divisional Rounds.