Friday Sweet 16 Predictions and Free Picks

Sweet 16 analysis and picks for Friday, March 24

The second day of the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 round tips off tonight at 6:30 PM. The #1 seeds for both the South and Midwest brackets face off against two number 5 seeds, Cinderella Princeton is a huge underdog and the late game feature a two vs. #3 seed. Jesse and I take a look at three of these games.

Texas Longhorns vs. Xavier Musketeers
Friday 3/24/23 at 9:45 PM ET
Sweet 16 Odds at FanDuel: Texas (-3.5), Total 148.5

These two veteran teams face off in the final Sweet 16 game Friday night. This game opened with the Longhorns favored by four points and has shown little movement. 

Texas finished as the #5 team in the nation, while Xavier is one of those teams that, for me, is hard to put a finger on, but they are one of three Big East teams that made the Sweet 16. So, instead of the side here, I’m going to take a look at the total, currently at 148.5.

Texas has shot 50% or better for each of their last three games, including a Big 12 Championship win over Kansas. Xavier has scored 78 point or more in six of their last 8 games. They have gone over 10 times in their last 13 non-conference games, while Texas has scored 71 points or more in eight of their last 10.

I am aware of the Longhorn defense and the current trend to like ‘the under’ in NCAA Tournament games. Jesse also pointed out that in 2022, six of the 8 Sweet 16 game went under the posted total. But, this number jumped off the screen at me and I think that, despite this total being the highest on the board for Friday night, this game goes over 148 points.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Friday 3/24/23 at 6:30 PM ET
Sweet 16 Odds at PointsBet: Alabama (-7.5), Total 137.5

Jesse takes a look at the first game on the board Friday night. The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently the favorite at every top online sportsbook to win this year’s NCAA Tournament. They are 7.5 point favorites over the #5 seeded Aztecs and when the total opened at 138, it looked like some value may be there on the under. But the number dropped like a stone, so most of that value is gone, despite the rise back up to 137.5.

San  Diego State is 12-1 in their last 13 games and has the ability to stick with any team, including the Crimson Tide. This will be the toughest test for Alabama so far in the NCAA Tournament, winning their first two games by more than 20 points. 

For Jesse’s free pick and complete analysis, plus some discussion on the Houston/Miami Sweet 16 game, check the video above. 

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