NFL Week 4 Recap: What bettors learned

The NFL season is heading into Week 5 and with the season taking shape, there is jsut one undefeated team in the Philadelphia Eagles and one team without a win, the Houston Texans. The Texans is not a surprise but the Eagles are now 3-1 to be the team that represents the NFC in the SBLVII. The only team with a shorter line to get to the Super Bowl is the Buffalo Bills at less than 2.5-1 As the season grinds on, players on the IL are starting to pile up and you have to wonder what Bill Belechik has up his sleeve for quarterback in Week 5. And the Patriots aren’t alone with injuries to key players that can affect wagering.

Injuries
The situation is dire for the Patriots after aging backup QB Brian Hoyer was knocked out of the game vs. the Packers. This is, of course, after starter Mac Jones was put on IL after Week 3. After fourth round pick, Bailey Zappe came in the Patriots still hung in, losing to Green Bay by just three points. Linemakers certainly took notice as the Patriots are still three point favorites at home in Week 5 vs Detroit, despite the uncertainty of Hoyer’s returnk. Definitely keep an eye on the odds for this matchup and the status for Hoyer.

The New York Giants aren’t in a much better spot. First starter Daniel Jones went out, then his replacement, Tyrod Taylor went out with a concussion, so Jones came back in. The G-Men even resorted to the wildcat to get through the game. Still, they did manage to beat the hapless Bears on the back of Saquon Barkley. To make matter worse, they have to take this show on the road to London for a matchup with the 3-1 Packers. The Pack does struggle against the run, but the oddsmakers aren’t believing in Brian Daboll like Belichick and have installed Green Bay as 7. 5 point favorite.

The Miami Dolphins have been a huge surprise this year and much of it has been due to the play of Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately, he suffered a terrible injury last Thursday night and the fish lost their first game to Cincinnati. Until the injury, Tua was second in QBR and had already thrown for over 1,000 yards on the season. The general thinking is that Teddy Bridgewater signed with Miami to provide insurance behind the often nicked up Tagovailoa, but Bridgewater is the reason Denver went shopping for Russell Wilson in the off-season. Luckily, they face the Jets this week and that is the type of game Bridgewater can win.

Johnathan Taylor was losing the matchup with the Titan’s Derrick Henry when he went down in the 4th quarter of the Colts loss to the Titans. He’s managed 4.0 yards per carry this season, good enough for just 33rd on the list and has just one touchdown. Though he’s a big name, his stats this year aren’t backing up any line shift from oddsmakers. But, bettors are lining up on Denver early and often. The odds have shifted quickly off of the key number of 3, risen to 3.5 and are trending up.

More injury notes

Denver lost RB Javonte Williams and safety P.J. Locke, Atlanta lost RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Washington lost rookie wide out Jahan Dotson and Buffalo will be without Jamison Crowder. These are among a slew of injuries that don’t go unnoticed by oddsmakers but are often overlooked by bettors. For sure, as the season progresses, gamblers need to keep an eye on who is going on and coming off the IL from week to week.

Bettors also need to keep in mind that lines makers figure these player injuries into the betting number. They are well aware of the status of players, often before even ESPN. Thinking that you have some kind of edge or that sportsbooks aren’t aware of the history of Teddy Bridgewater is not going to win any wagers. But, often the public betting does overreact to news of a Daniel Jones or a Tua Tagovailoa. That can be an advantage at the betting window for patient bettors who wait to see how the money and bets flow in on teams that have big name injuries.