Betting Under the total in the NFL is a trend bettors should be aware of
The NFL season of 2023 has brought a significant shift in the landscape of the game. As a seasoned sports bettor, you may have noticed a decline in scoring and a lack of qualityin NFL games. The offensive explosion that we have become accustomed to seems to have gone missing the last year or so. What exactly has changed? And how does it impact NFL betting totals, specifically the over/under?
The Decline in Scoring
Scoring in the NFL has reached its lowest point in recent years. Teams are averaging just 43.2 points per game, a figure that hasn’t been seen since before rule changes were implemented to bring some excitement into the game in 2010. The decrease in scoring has been a gradual process, with the last two years witnessing a significant drop-off. In 2022, the average points per game stood at 43.3, and this year’s numbers are trending further south.
The decline in scoring can be attributed to factors like defensive adjustments and the emphasis on penalties. Defensive schemes have become more effective in reducing big plays, resulting in fewer touchdowns and the NFL’s rule changes have leaned defensive, leading to a decrease in offensive explosiveness.
In recent years, defenses have become more adept at limiting big plays and stifling offensive production. With a focus on reducing big plays, defenses have been forcing offenses to adopt a more conservative approach. This has contributed to offensive coordinators becoming more cautious, resulting in historically bad red zone efficiency. With so much trouble converting touchdowns, t’s no wonder there has been a decline in scoring.
Underdogs, who are traditionally seen as less likely to win, are facing even greater challenges this season. They are covering the spread in less than 45% of games, the worst rate in two decades. The predictability of favorites winning games has increased, leading to fewer surprises and upsets.
Betting NFL Totals in 2023
As the NFL season progresses, it is essential to consider these scoring trends when placing bets on the over/under. Heading into Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season, just 10 teams have gone over the total more than 50% of the time. and only Dallas, Detroit and Indianapolis are 7-4 Over in games, good for 64%. But, 11 teams are just 3-8 Over or worse. Betting Under the total with teams like New England (13.5 PPG) and the New York Giants (13.4 PPG) and Jets (14.2 PPG), who are just three of the 11 teams teams to average under 20 points per game, would have made you thousands in 2023.
There has been alot made of the low totals in the Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night NFL games in 2023. And rightfully so. Unders are 32-3 over the last 35 SNF and MNF games. The combined total for all primetime games going under the total this season is 28-9, with TNF dragging it down at 6-6 over the total, despite three of the last four games going under.
In the coming weeks NFL bettors should take an extra long look at betting NFL totals. Certainly, the bookmakers are aware of these trends and have adjusted their numbers on over/under bets down. Look no further than the 38.5 total that bookmakers have posted for the upcoming MNF matchup between the Bengals and Jags. But there will be opportunities to cash in on the growing Under trend betting NFL totals. There are three other games in Week 13, with totals under 40 and the Panthers at Bucs looks like the one to bet at 37.5. Start looking ahead at totals too, before the totals get blindly bet down following these types of trends. It’s worth a look at a Week 14 TNF matchup between the Steelers and Patriots or the Christmas afternoon matchup between the Giants and Eagles, where a super early total of 47 is out there.
Best of Luck with all of your bets!!