Big 10 Conference Football Betting Preview

Upcoming betting preview for the Big 10 Conference

Welcome To Our World

The Big Ten football conference has the look and feel of the SEC, where the power in the conference this season resides in the East Division, while the West Division is arguably up for grabs.

Beginning next season, the ‘14’ team in the Big Ten will enlarge to ‘16’ with the arrival of UCLA and USC.

It’s a seismic shift as the two schools from the Pac-12 move from their west coast base into the Midwest.  If that makes any sense to you then you must be an actuary, as word has it the coffers at both UCLA and USC were bleeding money at the time of their announced departure.   

Well Stocked, Again

The projected All-Big Ten first teams from Athlon’s Sports, based on expectations of how players will perform in 2023, is led by eight selections from Ohio State (5 on offense; 3 defense) and seven from Michigan (5 on offense; 2 defense).

In line is Penn State with four (1 on offense; 3 defense) and Illinois with three (1 on offense; 2 defense).

Rounding out the tally with one player apiece is Iowa (defense), Michigan State (defense) and Wisconsin (offense).

Let’s Go Bowling 

Big Ten teams have fared exceptionally well as underdogs in bowl games dating back to 1998, going 70-53-1 ATS Overall.

However, Big Ten bowl teams with shoddy defenses are like oil and water – they do not mix well together.

That’s confirmed by the fact that since 1980, Big Ten bowlers who allow 26.5 or more PPG are just 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS.

Play accordingly.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2023 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide, or at PlaybookSports.com. All teams are listed alphabetically, by division. The numbers listed on the top line alongside the team name represents its offensive and defensive starters, and the number to the right of those (in parenthesis) designates as its projected opening season win total.

Big 10 Betting Preview – East Division  (Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers)

INDIANA – CH-CH-Changes  6 / 3   (3.5)

After Indiana seniors made 191 team-starts in 2021, the second most in the Big Ten, you knew the experience cupboard was going to be bare last year. However, to head coach Tom Allen’s credit, his troops actually doubled their 2021 win total last season. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers had 17 players enter the transfer portal this offseason, including QBs Connor Bazelak, who was the starter in 2022 after transferring in from Missouri, and Jack Tuttle, one of the trusted backups. As a result, there are a ton of new faces on the roster, and combined with new coaching hires on the staff, Indiana faces lots of change in 2023.

PLAY ON: at Purdue (11/25)

Stat you will Like: The Hoosiers are 2-12 ATS as a dog under Tom Allen when they sport a losing record, including 0-7 ATS at home.

MARYLAND – Coming Out of Their Shell   *5 /6   (7) 

Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua’s little brother, is the most experienced signal-caller returning in the conference this season. He threw for over 3,000 yards and 18 TDs last year, and under Mike Locksley’s tutelage, the Terps are coming off their most successful season in years, going 8-5, the most wins for the program since 2010. Locksley added three new coaches on the offensive side of the ball, including new OC Josh Gattis, who worked alongside Locksley at Alabama in 2018, and new assistant coach Kevin Sumlin, a veteran coach of over 30 years. RB Roman (Empire) Hemby was one of the best in the nation as a freshman last season.

PLAY ON: at Ohio State (10/7)

Stat you will Like: Maryland is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS during the regular season following a win from Game Seven out the last ten years.

MICHIGAN – Right Back Atcha   *8 / 8   (10.5)

It had to be disheartening, trailing TCU the entire game in a 51-45 loss in the CFP semifinals to then watch the Horned Frogs get trounced, 65-7, against Georgia in the CFP national championship game. It was indeed a tough pill for head coach Jim Harbaugh to swallow. But Michigan fans can take heart with the return of running back Blake Corum and quarterback J.J. McCarthy, as well as the 17th overall recruiting class for 2023 featuring 11 four-star prospects dotting this year’s roster. Behind Harbaugh’s leadership, and a rabid fan base, expect the Wolverines to make another run at the CFP.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Ohio State (11/25)

Stat you will Like: The Wolves are 3-15 SU in their final Big Ten game of the season since 2001, including 0-15 when not favored by more than 5 points.

MICHIGAN STATE – Mother Trucker   *8 / 7   (5.5)

Ouch. In the final moments before April’s transfer window closed, Michigan State lost key players when starting quarterback Payton Thorne and top receiver Keon Coleman entered the portal. Coleman was considered one of the top WRs in the portal and is game changer. Thus, the tone has been set for this season as the Spartans’ 2021 ascent from the ashes of a two-win campaign in 2020, Tucker’s first year with MSU, were met with a turbulent free fall last year. In other words, the timing couldn’t be worse for Mel’s biggest fan, Mother Tucker, as the Spartans experienced 15 players truck off to the portal since the end of last season. 

PLAY: at Indiana (11/18) – *KEY as a dog

Stat you will Like: The Spartans’ first five losses last season came against teams that were 20-1 collectively at the time they played.

OHIO STATE – Another QB for the Day   7 / 7   (10.5) 

In the past 50 years, Ohio State has won only two national titles. Despite scoring 13.0 PPG in the first quarter to lead the nation, it didn’t happen last season when the team’s No. 126 Red Zone Defense let down its No. 2 Red Zone Offense. QB Kyle McCord, the 31st-best player in the 2021 class, takes the reins from two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year QB C.J. Stroud in 2023. Frankly we’re taken aback by the Buckeyes’ 71.2% chance to win the Big Ten this season per ESPN’S FPI, ahead of Michigan’s 14.3%. To Wolves fans that’s close to egregious.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Penn State (10/21)

Stat you will Like: Ryan Day is 32-0 in games versus .900 or fewer foes, and 45-2 when OSU wins the stats.

PENN STATE – Allar Or Nothing   8 / 8   (9.5)

For the first time in recent memory, the Big Ten isn’t returning a clear frontrunner for the best quarterback in the conference. However, Drew Allar, the top five-star rated and second-ranked pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, takes over for departed Sean Clifford, who rewrote the Lions’ record book. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound sophomore Allar has future first-round draft pick potential and scouts compare him to Josh Allen. Meanwhile, sophomores Nicholas Singleton (1,061 yards, 12 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (867 yards, 10 TDs) both starred in the backfield last year and they return in 2023. While it’s putting a lot on Allar, it also puts the heat on Franklin.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Michigan 11/11

Stat you will Like: Head coach Franklin is 1-10-1 ATS when his team is coming off an outright loss as a favorite.

RUTGERS – Take Two Again   *6 / 8   (5)

It’s hard to believe there was a span from 2005-2011 in which Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights actually averaged 8 wins a year.  However, since Schiano’s second return to the program in 2020, his troops have averaged a scant 4 wins per season. Following a 3-0 kick-start to the season last year, the Knights proceeded to do what they do best, bottom out from that point forward to finish the season at 4-8, as they are now just 6-37 outright from Game Four out since 2018. It certainly didn’t help that Rutgers was the worst ranked team in the nation in Red Zone Defense last season. A do-over is in order.

PLAY ON: as a dog at Iowa (11/11)

Stat you will Like: Greg Schiano is 17-4-1 ATS as a non-conference pick or dog with Rutgers.

Big 10 Betting Preview – West Division  (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin)

ILLINOIS – Toe-to-Toe   6 / 7   (6.5)

The Illini started 2022 with a 7-1 record and reached No. 14 in the AP Top 25 – the program’s first appearance since 2011 – in Bret Bielema’s second season in Champaign. Bielema loves going mano-a-mano in the Big Ten where he is 47-28 outright and 42-32-1 ATS. The good news is Illinois, No. 3 in the nation in Net Turnover Margin last season, doesn’t face either Ohio State or Michigan. However, for the second straight year, Illinois will be relying on a transfer quarterback, hoping Ole Miss QB Luke Altmyer can be as successful as Tommy DeVito was after coming from Syracuse.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Northwestern (11/25) – *KEY off underdog win.

Stat you will Like: Bret Bielema is 2-10 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a .700 or fewer opponent.

IOWA – Moon Shadow   *9 / 7   (7.5)

The Will Moon family, owners of the world’s largest truck stop, have donated $10 million to fund the Iowa football head coaching job, resulting in the title changing to the Moon Family Head Football Coach. This solidifies Kirk Ferentz‘s position as the longest-tenured active head coach in college football, with no signs of leaving anytime soon. Iowa’s defense was outstanding last season, holding five foes to season-low yardage, but the team’s lack of a decent quarterback held them back. The addition of Cade McNamara from Michigan at signal-caller should help to improve the team’s offense and make them a Big Ten championship game contender.

PLAY ON: at Wisconsin (10/14)

Stat you will Like: Iowa is 24-7 in its last 31 rivalry trophy

MINNESOTA – Reeks of Leaks   *8 / 7   (6.5)

Coach Row-The-Boat has a few leaks to address this season, especially when taking on no less than 9 bowl teams. Three Golden Gopher football players were chosen in the 2023 NFL Draft. Six others were signed to NFL teams as undrafted free agents. And two of the latter were the key players in Minnesota’s attack when QB Tanner Morgan inked a trial with the Steelers and RB Mohamed Ibrahim signed a guaranteed contract with the Lions. Ibrahim set school rushing records and was the heart of the offense, with 1,665 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last season. Meanwhile, 1,000-yard RB Sean Tyler transfers in from Western Michigan.

PLAY ON: at Iowa (10/21) – *KEY as a dog

Stat you will Like: P.J. Fleck is 6-0 ATS away versus .800 or greater opponents who are coming off a win of 7 or more points.

NEBRASKA – Time After Time  *8 / 8    (6) 

Former Nebraska coach Frank Solich was fired by the Cornhuskers 20 years ago, and since his firing Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, and Scott Frost followed. Next up is Matt Rhule, aka College Football’s Fixer. Rhule was brought in to get Nebraska on track and moving in the right direction, as the Huskers haven’t won more than five games since the 2016 season; no conference championship since the ’99 title under Solich; no bowl since 2016 under Riley; and six straight losing seasons. So, is Rhule capable of snapping the Solich Curse? He’s going to need time, but then again, don’t we all?

PASS

Stat you will Like: Matt Rhule was 3-21 SU in his first joint seasons with Temple and Baylor, but 44-23 SU and 41-22 ATS thereafter with those schools.

NORTHWESTERN – Where’s Waldo?   *4 / 8   (3.5)

Safe to say it was not a vintage season for the Wildcats in 2022. Despite improving its offensive and defensive stats last season, Northwestern became a one-hit wonder behind its worst effort since going 0-11 in 1989. A quick glance at the stat sheets says it all: the Wildcats averaged a mere 13.8 PPG, and only Colorado State, New Mexico, and UMass were worse. It was so bad the offense was thought by many to be in the Witness Protection Program when it failed to score more than 13 points in the final five games of the season. Somewhat surprisingly, they did not bring a quarterback in through the portal.  

PLAY ON: at Duke (9/16)

Stat you will Like: Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 10-3 ATS as a dog with revenge versus .500 or fewer opponents.

PURDUE – It’s All in the Cards   7 / 5   (5.5)

New head coach Ryan Walters, a former defensive coordinator with Purdue, returns to the Boilermakers. Walters was the DC at Illinois last season, where his stop-unit was one of the nation’s best (12.7 PPG and 273.5 YPG). He inherits a linebacking corps that is among the best in the conference. Walters brought Graham Harrell in as offensive coordinator and his new toy, QB Hudson Card from Texas, is a dual threat. If they can get past a salty home slate that finds 2022 bowl teams as their first six visitors, the feeling here is the Boilers could make bundles of cash for backers this year – especially if Walters’ defensive mastery carries over.

PLAY ON: vs. Michigan 11/4 – *KEY as a dog

Stat you will Like: Purdue is 19-6 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a loss.

WISCONSIN – Streak on the Run   *10 / 8   (9)

Ex-Cincinnati and former Ohio State fill-in head coach Luke Fickell, former UC defensive coordinator Mike Tressel, and new offensive coordinator Phil Longo from UNC are bringing significant changes to Wisconsin this season. The Badgers will feature a dynamic, high-powered offensive attack led by SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who threw for 72 TDs in his last two seasons. The Badgers also return their top three receivers and top two running backs from last season, along with 13 players from the transfer portal. They look like a lock to extend their streak as one of only five teams to have had a winning season since 2010.

PLAY AGAINST: at Washington State (9/9) – *KEY

Stat you will Like: The Badgers own the nation’s 3rd longest bowl streak (21), trailing only Georgia (23) and Oklahoma (23).

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.