Waste Management Phoenix Open Best Bets 2026
The PGA Tour will officially begin our season this week following three events to open 2026. There has been some reshuffling of the schedule from previous years as there was no opening Sentry this year as it was cancelled due to course conditions and the season started two weeks later than last year. We are coming off just three events leading into Phoenix and after being sandwiched in-between signature events in 2025, this year’s edition precedes two consecutive signature events, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational.
The Greatest Show on Grass is the perfect stop prior to the signature events and in its usual spot on the schedule during Super Bowl week. The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale has been a fan favorite for years and annually is the most attended event on tour, surpassing 700,000 spectators (they are not called patrons here) each year. Highlighted by The Colosseum, the par three No. 16 hole that accommodates 20,000 fans, this is the ultimate week long Darty.
TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a 7,261-yard par 71 featuring two-inch fairway rough, 67 bunkers, six holes with water hazards, firm
TifEagle Bermudagrass green complexes with Poa Overseed, making this a classic dessert course all around. Scoring is low as the winning score was between -16 and -19 from 2017 through 2023 until Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman went to a playoff 2024 after finishing -21, eventually won by Taylor on the second playoff hole and then last season, Thomas Detry won by seven shots at -24.
Playing before two signature events will hurt the field at most places and while that is the case here, there are still plenty of marquee names teeing it up. 11 of the top 20 in the OWGR are playing as well as 10 former major winners are in the field. Scottie Scheffler heads the list after capturing his 20th PGA Tour victory at The American Express and returns to the place of his first PGA Tour win back in 2022. The other top 20 players are Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, Harris English, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Chris Gotterup, Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young.
Course fit and history is important to succeed here as TPC Scottsdale is No. 3 on tour in terms of projecting future success, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. Another connection is doing well in Majors as 10 of the last 13 winners at the WM Phoenix Open have also won either THE PLAYERS or a major championship, the exceptions being Detry, Taylor and Kevin Stadler in 2014. In addition to success at TPC Sawgrass, Memorial Park Golf Course which hosts the Houston Open, is ranked similarly close to TPC Scottsdale in tee-to-green difficulty.
Weather has not been an issue on the west coast so far this season and that will continue this week as conditions will be as good as it gets with mostly sunny skies all four days with temperatures between 81 and 83 degrees and very minimal wind. It is not one or two strengths that get it done but an all-around complete game that highlights Ball Striking and factors in Scrambling. It is not a birdie fest so hitting greens in regulation is pivotal and while SG: Putting (bermudagrass with poa trivialis/mix overseed) is important, it is not a top key stat.
Top three key categories this week:
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Scrambling
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 2,700 ~ Top Five 440 ~ Top Ten 210
Payout: Win 1,350.00 ~ Top Five 110.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50
It has been a red hot start for Si Woo as he has progressively gotten better with each event as he has gone T11, T6 and T2 and has been Schefflered and Rosed the last two weeks. He has made the cut in his last 10 starts with his worst finish being a T21 at the Genesis Championship while collecting four top fives. T21, T12, T23 and T26 in his last four starts in Phoenix and while those are not coming in with the same form. He has had great success at THE PLAYERS with a win and a T6 and in Houston with a T15 and T17.
Brooks Koepka
Odds: Win 3,200 ~ Top Five 570 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 1,600.00 ~ Top Five 142.50 ~ Top Ten 76.25
Koepka made his return to the PGA Tour last week and while the result was not there as he finished T56, his game looks just fine. He finished T11 in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green but his issue was on the greens as he was -7.23 in Strokes Gained: Putting on the South Course which was dead last in the field. He went on a marathon practice session after Saturday and finished -0.31 on Sunday, a massive improvement. He has a pair of wins here as well as a T3 in his last start here in 2022.
Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 3,300 ~ Top Five 540 ~ Top Ten 260
Payout: Win 1,650.00 ~ Top Five 135.00 ~ Top Ten 65.00
McNealy opened with a 65 last week and coasted home with three straight 70s to post a solo tenth at the Farmers. He has missed two cuts in his last 14 starts dating back to last season while posting three top tens including a solo third and a T5. He has gained strokes in all five categories in both of his starts this season and has added distance while dialing in with his long irons. After having to withdraw in 2023, he has a T6 and a T9 the last two years in Phoenix.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 4,800 ~ Top Five 720 ~ Top Ten 335
Payout: Win 2,400.00 ~ Top Five 180.00 ~ Top Ten 83.75
Fitz will be making his second PGA start of the season following a disappointing T63 at The American Express which has inflated his odds and keeping him under the radar. His late summer and fall finishes on the DP World Tour were outstanding as he made six starts and went T6, 5th, T5, T21, T32 and closed with a win at the DP World Tour Championship. He missed the cut here last year but has a T15 and a T10 in 2024 and 2022 respectively and looks to bounce back.
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