NBA Finals 2025 Preview & Betting Tips: Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
As is almost always the case, the NBA Finals feature the best teams from each conference. We have an occasional upset, but those are rare. Here is a look at what each brings to the table in a quest to win their first NBA championship.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds (courtesy of Betonline)
(4) Indiana (+482) vs (1) Oklahoma City (-660)
The Thunder is the 11th team to be a favorite of -600 or more in The Finals. Only the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers failed to take the crown, upset by Detroit. Nonetheless, the Lakers were a #2 seed compared to Oklahoma City a #1 seed, and they had among the best regular seasons ever with 68 wins. Plus, Indiana is a #4 seed, and only twice in NBA history has a team won the championship seeded below the third spot. In each instance, they would have been seeded higher except for highly unusual circumstances.
How the Indiana Pacers Can Win the NBA Finals
In looking at the odds, it’s not lost on most bettors that the Pacers need a “Hoosiers” storyline. Being from the same state at least makes for a better story.
For Indiana to win four times, they will have to be a better version of what they have already accomplished to reach this juncture. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has to continue to lead the most efficient offense in the postseason. That means running at every opportunity and scoring at an extremely high rate, or getting to the charity stripe and not missing free throws.
In truth, Oklahoma City plays nearly the same style as the Pacers and can match points with them. However, only twice this postseason has Indiana shot below 41 percent. If they can hang around 48 to 51 percent and win the turnover battle, make two to three more threes a game, coach Rick Carlisle’s crew can make OKC nervous, just like Denver did.
Indiana is better defensively than they played all season, more committed and connected. They have to force miscues and turn steals into points to place continual pressure on Oklahoma City. Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner must be a collective force. If this trio outplays the Thunder’s three best, this turns into a series.
How the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Secure the Championship
Oklahoma City has real edges in the matchup. If they exploit them to the fullest, this is a five-game series, tops. The Thunder can play lockdown defense when fully focused. If they do this for three/four minutes at a time, they can go on 6-0 or 8-1 runs and run away with games.
Though the Pacers are deep, similar to OKC off the bench, Alex Caruso and Cason Williams have impacted games immediately
throughout the postseason. As two-way players, be it offense, defense or both together, Caruso and Williams play fearlessly.
MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite scorer, if not always as a shooter. SGA draws a bushel of fouls a game, which is normally how his big numbers grow almost quietly. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are both capable of snatching double-digit rebounds, and that was a problem against New York’s Michael Robinson. This duo also keeps the front of the rim clean on defense when they play together.
The biggest concern is will the Thunder be ready for each matchup? They suffered ugly, unfathomable defeats in April and May. If they arrive mentally sharp, they are almost impossible to knock off.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 5 Games
Oklahoma City won and covered both meetings this season. If the Thunder don’t get ahead of themselves or buckle in tight moments, that’s how they keep Indiana at arm’s length. It seems impossible for Indiana to win four times, though they could cover big road spreads. In the end, Oklahoma City proves the regular season was no fluke.
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