2025 NBA Conference Finals Preview – Odds, Predictions & Best Bets
We are down to the Final Four of the NBA Playoffs. Three of the four clubs standing are a complete surprise, which by NBA standards is highly unusual. Here is a look at both series matchups and the last odds to win it all.
Top Teams to Win NBA Title (courtesy of BetOnline)
Oklahoma City Thunder -175
New York Knicks +475
Minnesota Timberwolves +550
Indiana Pacers +700
Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Odds, Keys to Win & Game 7 Prediction
This battle is as unlikely as Taco Bell selling chicken nuggets, yet here we are. Both Indiana and New York were helped by Cleveland and Boston suffering injuries, yet when watching, it was obvious that neither team looked like they wouldn’t have won their series anyway.
The Knicks won the season series 2-1, winning once at Indiana, and they were favored in all the matchups, the last on February 12. Both squads are quite different since that time, as we will explain. This is the fourth get-together in the East Finals for the clubs, having played three times from – 1993 to 2000, the last time the Pacers won behind Reggie Miller, for their only NBA Finals appearance.
How Pacers Win – You have to give credit to coach Rick Carlisle, a team which ranked #23 in defensive field goal
percentage in the regular season (47.3%), has only permitted over 46% once in 10 playoff games, and is at 44%. Indiana comfortably will use up to 11 players in any game, mixing and matching to their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.
Pascal Siakam might be Indiana’s leading scorer, but this team as a whole feeds off point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who is doing everything for his club. Haliburton has the offense humming at 117 points per possession, easily the best of the four teams left. Also, keep in mind the Pacers are 4-1 SU and ATS on the postseason road.
How Knicks Win – Ultimately, how Jalen Brunson plays could determine if New York beats Indiana to reach the NBA for the first time in 26 years. On a game-by-game basis, the ups and downs will come from Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges. Another massive person is center Michael Robinson. He’s an effective rim protector who gobbles up rebounds and gives the Knicks extra possessions on the offensive glass.
It makes sense for New York to play at their slower pace, have Indiana play defense 20 seconds per possession, see if they hold up, and have the patience and not break down. The Knicks on defense need connectivity, doing good work to protect against three, while guarding the paint.
Prediction: Knicks in 7. While the visitor could win four times in the series, it won’t be in Game 7.
Western Conference Finals 2025: Timberwolves vs Thunder Preview, Odds & Pick
One team was expected to be here, but their path was more treacherous than expected. The other club was not, disposing of two brand names in short order. Minnesota and Oklahoma City split four games, each winning on the other’s home court once, with the Timberwolves 3-1 ATS. For many viewers, this will be their first real look at these two teams, watching current and future stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.
Based on the numbers, these are the two best defensive teams in the paint. Though there will be a lot of emphasis on three-point shooting because of this, the thought here is that who can make the most mid-range shots and get to the free throw line will be the difference in the series.
How Timberwolves Win – Minnesota might have caught a break, playing Oklahoma City with just one day off after a grueling seven-game
series, which was mentally and physically draining. In the last two postseasons, if the Timberwolves grab a series lead, they are 4-0. This year’s squad is more defensive-minded, and their mission is to make Oklahoma City beat them in the half-court. If Minnesota controls the OKC fast break, they are in every game.
Ant-Man will get his points. What these playoffs seem to have proven is that Julius Randle is better when not the lead dog. He’s letting the game come to him, and his production is at new heights in the playoffs. To beat the Thunder, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid must be the two best big men in the series. If, and it’s a big IF, if Donte DiVincenzo can find the magic he had last spring with the Knicks, Minnesota is a tougher out.
How the Thunder Win – It’s a given SAG will score, having put up 37,39 and 40 points in three of the four meetings. Who can lift OKC to the Finals is SAG plays his usual game, along with Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Alex Caruso. How Williams plays tends to be what the Thunder do. When OKC goes on runs, he’s usually in the middle of the action. Holmgren is a defensive presence, but he tends to come and go. He’s great around the rim for alley-oops. However, if he shoots 45 percent more than 10 feet from the basket, which he was not close to against Denver, he becomes a problem.
In truth, not sure the Thunder beat the Nuggets with Caruso. He might be the missing piece for them if they win it all, with tremendous energy, outstanding defense, and making big shots. OKC was +34 in turnover margin vs Denver, and for the postseason, they are +68. Minnesota averaged 17.5 turnovers against Golden State. This could be the difference.
Prediction: Thunder in 6. Oklahoma City’s ability to generate and score off turnovers helps them advance to The Finals.
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