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Week 13 NFL Line Moves and Free Picks
Thanksgiving week in the NFL really breaks it into two different elements: the first part of the week and Sunday/Monday. That is even more true with a game now on Black Friday. With this, for one week, we will have just one NFL Line Moves article that will include our Free Picks, which are on a blazing 26-10 run.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys – Total 52 | Thu, Nov 27 | 4:00 PM ET | CBS
This is an extremely important game for each team’s playoff chances, because the loser might have to win out to have a chance. However, the
focus of NFL bettors is on the total, raised from 51 to 52 points, and we are seeing a couple of sportbooks at 52.5. The Kansas City offense is clunking along at just over 21 PPG in its past three tries. Nevertheless, it should be noted that they had 494 yards last week against the Colts, so maybe the Chiefs could get rolling. For the Cowboys’ explosiveness, they have tallied only 44 points in their past two home games. Note that K.C. and Dallas fit this system: Teams with a total of 49.5 or higher, scoring 24 or more PPG, after a win by six or fewer points, are 32-10 UNDER.
Bet Percentage: OVER 52%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Total 44 | Sun, Nov 30 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Colts had a great chance to stay tied with New England and Denver with only two setbacks, yet couldn’t make a 20-9 lead in the fourth quarter hold up at Kansas City because the offense completely stalled. Houston had an impressive upset of Buffalo with a domineering defensive effort. The Texans’ defense is lights out as they continue to fight for a playoff berth, and the total crumbled from 46.5 to 44. In looking at this AFC South affair, it seems the team that controls the game will dictate the tempo and play. At home, that would be the Colts, who are 7-0 OVER after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in the last game.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 64%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
L.A. Rams at Carolina Panthers +10.5 | Sun, Nov 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
So much for Bryce Young being able to deliver another clutch performance in losing 20-9 to the 49ers. With the L.A. Rams playing like the best all-around team in the NFL at the moment, Matthew Stafford and friends were shifted to large road favorites of -10.5 (up a digit). The Panthers’ offense is better at home, averaging 20.6 PPG, yet L.A. is at 29.5 PPG in the road uniforms. With the Rams 7-0 ATS as road favorites, we’ll say a late field goal gives them the cover over Carolina.
Bet Percentage: L.A. Rams 94%
Doug’s Pick – Rams cover
Atlanta Falcons at N.Y. Jets +2.5 | Sun, Nov 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Atlanta was a very popular play against squad at New Orleans last Sunday. Off a bitter setback to Carolina and losing Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons appeared a certain loser. Welp, Atlanta remained as unpredictable as ever and won 24-10. In spite of the money following the Jets, the Falcons have flown from -1 to -2.5 in New Jersey. Though Gang Green remains a feeble football club, they are 4-1-1 ATS in their past half dozen starts. In what seems like a very tricky spot, we’ll follow history and note Atlanta is 0-7 ATS after a triumph of 10 or more points.
Bet Percentage: Jets 70%
Doug’s Pick – Jets cover
Las Vegas Raiders at L.A. Chargers – Total 41 | Sun, Nov 30 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Chip Kelly was fired as OC by the Raiders in a move that doesn’t move the needle. Kelly has not done much since his days at Oregon many moons ago. Truth be told, what did Kelly have to work with? A bottom #8 quarterback, no offensive line or wide receivers. This is an ideal situation for the Chargers’ defense to shine, facing a bad offense and coming off a bye. In turn, the total slide from 43.5 to 41. The Bolts were slammed at Jacksonville, and home teams versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, are 24-4 UNDER.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 78%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (18-18 record): Chargers, Seahawks and Colts
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (17-19 Record): Rams/Panthers OVER, Saints/Dolphins UNDER and 49ers/Browns UNDER
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