Week 8 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks
We had two MAC games with significant line moves, along with those from the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. We now have all the updates on, plus Free Picks and more.
CFB – (343) Kent St. at (344) Toledo -26.5
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 2:00 p.m. ET /ESPN+
Kent St. mauled UMass 42-6, while Toledo gave up another lead and was upset at Bowling Green. With that, the Rockets have rocketed from -24 to -26.5 against Kent State. The outcome feels like what kind of mood Toledo is in, and if they will play 60 minutes. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS off a road setback. Update: After an early push on Toledo, they have gone back a bit to -26 with the Golden Flashes, the people’s pick on Friday. After each loss, the Rockets have pounded the next opponent this season. If Toledo wants to, they can.
Bet Percentage: Previously Toledo 95%, now Kent State 57%
Doug’s Pick – Toledo covers
CFB – (357) Pittsburgh at (358) Syracuse Total 54.5
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 7:30 p.m. ET /ACCN
Pittsburgh, with their new quarterback, Mason Heintschel, has rung up 82 points in two conference victories. Syracuse is off a bye week,
trying to find answers with their backup quarterback who’s been called into action since Steve Angeli season-ending injury. Football bettors think the ‘Cuse situation matters more and lowered the total to 54.5 from 56.5. Pitt is 14-4 UNDER in away contests, having won four or five out of their last six games. Update: The total has gone nowhere. If Pitt takes the game seriously, they should limit what the Orange can score, and this ACC affair turns into a lower scoring contest.
Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 77%, now 63%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER
CFB – (361) Central Michigan at (362) Bowling Green -3.5
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 12:00 p.m. ET /CBSSN
Bowling Green has slid from -6 to -3.5 point home favorites against Central Michigan. Bowling Green is 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS), while the Chippewas are 1-3 SU and ATS away from home. Yet, one element exists: the Falcons have been outgained in all five games vs. FBS competition. Update: After early betting on this MAC matchup, it doesn’t seem there was much follow-up or interest, as nothing was altered. We’ll side with the home team as CMU is 1-8 ATS in away games against conference opponents.
Bet Percentage: Previously Central Michigan 82%, now the same
Doug’s Pick – Bowling Green covers
*NEW* CFB – (383) Arizona at (384) Houston +1
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 12:00 p.m. ET /FS1
With Arizona pushing unbeaten BYU to OT before falling, evidently, that is more appealing to football bettors than Houston hammering lowly Oklahoma State by 22. The Wildcats were flipped from +2.5 to -1 digit road favorites. One can make the case Arizona is the better overall squad, and the bet percentage backs that up. However, the ‘Cats are 0-5 ATS in away games after playing at home. The Cougars outright.
Bet Percentage: Arizona 77%
Doug’s Pick – Houston covers
CFB – (393) Texas A&M at (394) Arkansas Total 62
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN
The Razorbacks score 36 PPG while allowing 30 PPG, which is the driving force for the total climbing from 60 to 62 versus #3 Texas A&M. The Aggies average 34 PPG, but do a much better job on the defensive side at 20 PPG. Football betters appear to think the Hogs can draw the Aggies into a shootout. Update: We have seen a massive shift in the total from a high of 62 points down to 58.5. The local forecast says a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing about wind. The only aspect that makes sense is influential money believes the Texas A&M defense can slow Arkansas down in the same manner Notre Dame did, holding them to 13 points. Nonetheless, the Aggies are 9-1 OVER away after one or more consecutive straight up wins, with an average score of 65 total points.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 92%, now UNDER 68%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
CFB – (413) Oregon at (414) Rutgers -17
Saturday, Oct. 18 – 6:30 p.m. ET /BTN
Oregon losing at home to Indiana was a surprise, but losing by 10 is what got most people’s attention. Bettors are counting on angry ducks and shoved Oregon from -14.5 to -17. The Scarlet Knights have surrendered better than 35 PPG in Big Ten action, and it’s hard to see them permitting fewer than that facing coach Dan Lanning’s squad. Oregon is 6-0 ATS vs. defensive teams allowing 6.25 or more yards a play. Update: A slight bump on Oregon to -17.5. Hard to imagine Oregon not winning by 20 or more points.
Bet Percentage: Previously Oregon 96%, now 83%
Doug’s Pick – Oregon covers
CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (16-18-1 record): Cincinnati, Ohio State, Purdue, Central Florida and New Mexico
CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (16-20 record): Miss. State/Florida OVER, Florida State/Stanford OVER, Oregon/Rutgers OVER, UNLV/Boise St. UNDER and Southern Miss/Louisiana OVER
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