Week 7 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks
This week, Line Moves not only have changes on the side and totals, but some have both in the same contest early in the week. Check this out and review our Free Picks and more.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs – Kansas City -12 | Sun, Oct 19 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
All the concerns of the Kansas City offense not being as productive have disappeared like Periscope, with the Chiefs posting 37, 28, and 30
points in their last trio of contests. NFL bettors are confident that it will matter when Las Vegas arrives, as they try not to be barbequed in Kansas City. The Raiders have risen from +10.5 to +12 points away underdogs. However, the Black and Silver are 12-7 ATS in K.C. Update: The line remains unchanged from earlier in the week. When the Raiders have upset or played Kansas City, it was their ability to run to control the tempo. The Chiefs permit 4.7 yards per carry, the Raiders average 4.0 YPC. For Las Vegas to stay in the game, they have to rush 30 times at 4.6 YPC, with no turnovers. The Raiders do enough to lose by 10.
Bet Percentage: Previously Chiefs 92%, now 89%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Raiders covers
Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings – Philadelphia -1 | Sun, Oct 19 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Faith in the Super Bowl champs is fading after back-to-back defeats, as they are down to -1 in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, after opening at -2.5. Though the Eagles will have more rest than normal, having played last Thursday, Minnesota is off a bye week. The line would seem to favor Philly, which is 20-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Nevertheless, the Vikings are 13-0 SU against teams that force one or fewer turnovers a game. Update: Another line that has not moved since Tuesday with NFL bettors content, for now, with the number. This is normally a spot to back Philly, however, they’ve not won in the stats once this season. The Eagles are losing at the line of scrimmage, and could that happen again.
Bet Percentage: Previously Eagles 57%, now 63%
Doug’s Pick – Vikings cover
Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets – Carolina -1 | Total 41.5 | Sun, Oct 19 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The lookahead line had Gang Green as two-point favorites against Carolina in New Jersey. After the Jets players and coaches found a way to lose to a listless Denver outfit overseas, combined with Carolina winning for a third time in four tries, the Panthers are now 2.5-point away faves. Carolina has not been a road favorite since early 2022, which was 28 games ago, ironically in the same stadium (vs. the Giants). The total has crumbled like a week-old cookie from 45 to 42, because of that “dangerous” New York offense. Update: The Jets have flown back to +1 because trusting the Panthers as road favorites sounds as bad as backing New York. The total took the next step down the stairs to 41.5. Gang Green is going to win this season. This seems like the perfect spot in a low-scoring affair!
Bet Percentage: Previously Jets 51% and UNDER 95%, now split on side and UNDER 82%
Doug’s Pick – Jets cover and UNDER
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys – Dallas -1 | Total 54 | Sun, Oct 19 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Washington gave away a victory to Chicago on Monday and needs a win to stay above .500. Those betting on football are unconcerned about who wins; they are looking for points, and this NFC East encounter jumped like a frog from 52 to 55. Should you bet – UNDER 0.5 punts in this matchup? Update: The total took a step backward to 54, but it could go back up with cornerback Trevon Diggs out for Dallas. There has been talk of less Dallas zone defense and more man with Diggs’ skills. Now we don’t know, and this doesn’t help the ‘Boys defense. Dak and friends are one-point home faves after starting as two-point pooches. Trust the home team only if you believe this. Teams like Washington after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite, are 6-29 SU.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 97%, now 77%, with Cowboys at 77%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER and Dallas covers
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers – San Francisco -1 | Total 47 | Sun, Oct 19 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Atlanta has won three of four, and since being shutout at Carolina, they have averaged 29 PPG. San Francisco is still battling injuries, and now the defense is getting hit, and they have conceded 26 PPG in their past trio of showings. For this Sunday night affair on the Left Coast, the 49ers are a sinking favorite (-3.5 to -2), with the total moving upward (45.5 to 47). Update: San Fran has dwindled to a mere -1, with the total holding steady at 47. Cannot back the Birds knowing they are 0-8 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. For those that didn’t know, Atlanta, yea, the one from the Peachtree state, is #1 in total defense. Falcons on a 5- UNDER run as road underdogs of 3 points or less.
Bet Percentage: Previously 49ers 61% and OVER 90%, now 65% and OVER 77%
Doug’s Pick – 49ers cover and UNDER
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (8-10 record): Chiefs, Patriots and Packers
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (8-10 Record): Patriots/Titans UNDER, Dolphins/Browns UNDER and Buccaneers/Lions OVER
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