Week 6 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks
CFB – (301) Oregon State at (302) Appalachian State -1.5
Saturday, Oct. 4 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN+
Both programs in this matchup are struggling and need a win to turn their season around. Despite an 0-5 record for Oregon State,
they were switched from +1.5 to -1.5 against the Mountaineers. For the Beavers to win, they will have to dam up the defense, which is permitting 36.6 PPG. The early bet percentage suggests that it will be hard to do. Update: Evidently, the betting numbers caught up and App. State is back to a -1.5 point favorite over Oregon State. It is quite a surprise how far these programs have fallen in the last few years. Though we prefer the Beavers, they are 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3; thus, we look the other way.
Bet Percentage: Previously App. State 78%, now 85%
Doug’s Pick – Lean App. State
CFB – (327) Iowa State at (328) Cincinnati -1.5, Total 54
Saturday, Oct. 4 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN2
Both these Big 12 partners are off impressive victories, with Iowa State ambushing Arizona and Cincinnati sliding by Kansas on the road for the upset. The Bearcats were flipped from +1.5 to -1.5 home favorites with the total leaping from 50.5 to 54. The total climbing that much suggests Cincy would carry the pace of play, as they average 39.5 PPG. However, the Cyclones only allow 14.2 PPG, making this a fascinating encounter. Update: Bettors have remained satisfied with the Bearcats as favorites, with the total climbing a digit to 55. On the surface, the Cyclones seem the better play, but Cincy’s pass offense is red-hot behind QB Brendan Sorsby, and Iowa State has two top injuries to the secondary. That makes the home team the play and we’ll back the OVER.
Bet Percentage: Previously Cincinnati 69% and OVER 89%, Now 61% and OVER 81%
Doug’s Pick – Cincinnati covers and OVER
CFB – (347) Eastern Michigan at (348) Buffalo -10, Total 51
Saturday, Oct. 4. – 3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN+
Buffalo is off two straight losses, yet has risen to -10 (from -7.5) versus fellow MAC member Eastern Michigan. The difference between these clubs is in defense. Eastern Michigan concedes 36.6 PPG compared to Buffalo at 19.6 PPG. Each offense scores a mere 24 PPG; thus, football bettors are forecasting the home team will have more success in scoring. That is backed up by the total lifted from 48 to 51. Update: There has been a little pullback on Buffalo to -9.5, but the total has skyrocketed to 54.5! The return of QB TaQuan Robertson is fueling the heavy Buffalo money and rising total. We have no issue riding with the Bulls, as EMU struggles against good passing teams. Buffalo’s defense makes it work, but not sure the total should be this high.
Bet Percentage: Previously Buffalo 84% and OVER 90%, now 87% and 93% OVER
Doug’s Pick – Buffalo covers, Lean UNDER
CFB – (375) Vanderbilt at (376) Alabama -10.5
Saturday, Oct. 4 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ABC
Off Alabama’s impressive win at Georgia, who would have thought the Crimson Tide would tumble as favorites by three points to -10.5 against Vanderbilt? Granted, the Commodores are 5-0, averaging 49 PPG and winning by nearly 32 PPG. Bama Coach DeBoer won’t have to remind his players they lost in Nashville 40-35 last year. Or is Vandy just that good and deserves the respect they are being given? Update: The Tide remains stuck at -10.5, which is interesting because of the hook. Sharp bettors we’ve talked to are evenly split on these two SEC squads. We like the ‘Dores, but in Tuscaloosa, this is a tall order.
Bet Percentage: Previously Alabama 72%, now 62%
Doug’s Pick – Alabama covers
CFB – (391) Boise State at (392) Notre Dame -20
Saturday, Oct. 4 – 3:30 p.m. ET /NBC
Notre Dame might only be .500 one-third through their season, but they were pounded from -17.5 to -20.5 point home favorites. The Fighting Irish have tallied 152 points in their last three outings, finding the endzone in a multitude of ways. However, Boise State has things rolling since their stunning blowout opening loss to South Florida, averaging 49 PPG themselves. Update: No changes for this encounter, with Notre Dame holding steady. What you have to think about is trusting the Irish defense, which is #96 in yards allowed. If Notre Dame’s offense keeps rolling, they should cover, plus, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive straight-up wins. You might need to hold on in the final minutes, hoping not to get backdoored.
Bet Percentage: Previously Notre Dame 81%, now 77%
Doug’s Pick – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (399) Texas State at (400) Arkansas St. -18
Saturday, Oct. 4 – 4:00 p.m. ET /ESPNU
Texas State has played like a team that will contend in the Sun Belt West as they open up conference play. The Bobcats’ offense averages 36 PPG and has thrived against less competition thus far at 3-1. Arkansas State was a perennial contender in the SBC, but looks more like a doormat at this time, at 1-4. Texas State was released as a -10.5 point away favorite, and that’s jumped to -13.5. The Texas State defense is ordinary at best (29 PPG allowed); nonetheless, the Red Wolves only tally 21.8 PPG and are 0-5 ATS at home, having lost four out of their last five games.
Bet Percentage: Texas State 83%
Doug’s Pick – Texas State covers
CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (12-13 record): SMU, Michigan, TCU, West. Michigan and Old Dominion
CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (13-13 record): Texas Tech/Houston OVER, Miss. State/Texas A&M OVER, Washington/Maryland OVER, Wisconsin/Michigan OVER and Mich. State/Nebraska OVER
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