GamblersWORLD Week 4 NFL Line Moves
Week 3 is the first “tell” about where teams are as a whole. Weekly, Line Moves tell NFL bettors where the action is and where it might be headed. See you back here for the updates on these games and free picks.
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Minnesota -2.5 | Sun, Sept 28 | 9:30 AM ET | NFLN
It’s off to Ireland for the second of several NFL overseas games that allow – Roger the Commish – to sell merchandise and force people to watch football even earlier on Sundays. Because the earliest lines are all lookahead, sometimes they are not correct because new information wasn’t known. Minnesota was sent out at +1 against Pittsburgh because J.J. McCarthy was injured, and Carson Wentz hasn’t inspired confidence in some time. However, the latest – quarterback whisperer, Kevin O’Connell, as the Vikings coach, said all Wentz needs to do is be a “point guard”. It worked as the Vikings worked Cincinnati 48-10. The Vikes were flipped to -2.5 over Pittsburgh, trusting Wentz/O’Connell over Aaron Rodgers.
Bet Percentage: Even 50-50 split
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Total 43.5 | Sun, Sept 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jalen Hurts and Philly average 25.4 PPG, and Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are at 24 PPG, yet the total tumbled two points to 43.5. Each club has permitted at least 21 PPG; thus, this gets us closer to attempting to figure out why this line move occurred. With Hurts and Mayfield, any Under comes into question with their ability to bring their teams back from a deficit. Granted, the past five matchups find a 4-1 UNDER answer. It is true, Mike Evans is out for Tampa Bay, yet, since Mayfield arrived in West Florida, he’s found ways to win and score with whoever is playing.
Bet Percentage: OVER 69%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions – Total 44 | Sun, Sept 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
A massive three-point drop in the total from 47 to 44 might be the most attractive aspect of this nonconference collusion for those placing wagers. Cleveland is driving the bus on this line movement because their defense is physical and aggressive, with the offense a lackluster #30 in scoring at 15.3 PPG. There is probably a feeling that the Lions will be flat-ish off a meaningful Monday night contest. That is likely true, but coach Dan Campbell will challenge the offense to show who has the better unit: the Lions offense or the Browns defense? Stay tuned.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 94%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams – Total 49.5 | Sun, Sept 21 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Sean McVay has done his best to convince his team that it was bad luck the Rams fell to Philadelphia in the most bizarre way. Besides, McVay understands his squad has to face another unbeaten unit in Indianapolis. Everyone is expecting offense, not defense, and shoved the total from 46.5 to 49.5. Daniel Jones has played like his former nickname – Danny Dimes – with precision passing and working the run game behind an excellent Colts O-Line. Indy is #3 in scoring at 34.3 PPG. The Rams aren’t shabby at 24.3 PPG. With the total this high, what the outcome depends on is the amount of pressure both clubs apply to the opposing QBs.
Bet Percentage: OVER 95%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders – Pick | Sun, Sept 28 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Pete Carroll might have brought enthusiasm to his new team; unfortunately, to Raiders fans, it looks like the same old Silver and Black. This is brought home by the fact that Chicago, off its initial victory of the season, has gone from +2.5 to a Pick in Sin City. Here are three elements to determining the right side for this matchup. Who can successfully run the ball and stop the run? And which quarterback makes the fewest number of dumb throws?
Bet Percentage: Bears 83%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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