GamblersWORLD Week 4 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Week 4 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks

We move to the third Saturday in September for college football and cover the biggest line moves. Here are all the updates from earlier in the week and our Free Picks! Enjoy!

CFB – (309) North Texas at (310) Army +1.5
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 12:00 p.m. ET /CBSSN

The Mean Green opened as 2.5-point underdogs at Army, but were flipped early in the week to -1.5 point road favorites. It is hard to know what to make of the Black Knights, losing to Tarleton State at home, followed by upsetting Kansas State on the road. Here is something to ponder. North Texas allowed Western Michigan to rush for 216 yards on the road in their three-point win. The Army is a more skilled rushing offense. Update: In spite of the money flipping to the Army, North Texas went up to -2. The Mean Green is probably the better squad, but Army tests the patience of opposing teams, limiting their possessions. Let’s take the points with North Texas 0-5 ATS away after playing a game at home.

Bet Percentage: Previously North Texas 95%, now Army 54%

Doug’s Pick – Army covers

CFB – (311) SMU at (312) TCU Total 64
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN2

We certainly cannot be shocked that the total was lifted from 61.5 to 64 for the Lone Star State rivalry encounter. TCU is averaging 45 PPG, and SMU is at 38.3 PPG. Three of the last four battles have easily gone OVER this total. Both squads have high-powered veteran quarterbacks skilled in not only moving the chains but finding the endzone. Update: Bettors have determined 64 points was more than enough, and sharp action has sent the adjustment total to 63.5. While an Over would not catch anyone off guard, home teams like TCU, averaging 440 or more YPG, against a team with a mediocre defense (390 to 440 YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games, are 69-30 UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Previously 90% OVER, now 52%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (333) Kent State at (334) Florida State -46
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ACCN

With Florida State reminding backers of the Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher teams of the past to start 2025, the Seminoles were shoved from an already chalky 43.5 points to 46. This is the seventh time in the last decade, the less than Golden Flashes are catching 40+ digits, handily the most in the time period. Update: Though the bet percentages have remained stable, Kent State has attracted enough money to be lowered to +45. Florida State can beat the number if they choose, but coming off a bye and having their ACC opener at Virginia next week, we’ll say the Seminoles win by around 40 points, coming up short.

Bet Percentage: Previously Kent State 55%, now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Kent State

CFB – (335) Toledo at (336) Western Michigan -14
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN+

The upper tier of the MAC appears stronger this season, led by Toledo. The Rockets’ first conference test is at Western Michigan, which has faced a pair of Big Ten teams (Michigan State and Illinois) and what seems to be a high-quality North Texas outfit. The Chippewas have grown two points to +14 underdogs, in part because if they fall behind, they are #124 in passing yards. Nonetheless, Toledo is 5-16 ATS in away games after two or more consecutive straight-up wins. Update: The betting market believes the line is fair, and it’s not budged. Though we expect a strong effort from the Broncos early, Toledo has far more talent and experience and pulls away in the second half to cover.

Bet Percentage: Previously Western Michigan 85%, now 77%

Doug’s Pick – Toledo covers

CFB – (353) Auburn at (354) Oklahoma Total 46.5
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET  /ABC

This featured SEC afternoon affair has total tumble three digits to 46.5. Oklahoma is #4 in the country in points allowed at 10 per contest. Auburn is not too shabby at 14 PPG surrendered, as these conference combatants are ready to tangle. The QB battle is promising with John Mateer running or passing for the Sooners, while Jackson Arnold (former Sooner) is at the controls for Auburn. The clubs might move the ball between the 30s; however, finding the endzone figures to be problematic.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 51%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (361) Michigan St. at (362) USC -17.5
Saturday, Sept. 20 – 8:00 p.m. ET /FOX

This is the Big Ten opener for both units, who have started 3-0. The Men of Troy have been bumped from -15.5 to -17.5, as some wonder if the Spartans’ offense can keep pace despite having scored 40+ in their past two outings. Update: USC has slowly risen all week, now sitting at -19. The question is, will the Spartans’ pass defense hold up versus the Trojans’ potent pass attack, and will Sparty be able to stay connected over 60 minutes? We’ll say no.

Bet Percentage: Previously USC 96%, now 78%

Doug’s Pick – USC covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (7-8 record): Virginia, Oklahoma, USC, Western Michigan and Georgia Tech

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (9-7 record): Maryland/Wisconsin OVER, Michigan/Nebraska OVER, California/San Diego St. UNDER, Washington/Washington St. UNDER and Boise St./Air Force OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.