GamblersWORLD Week 3 NFL Line Moves

GamblersWORLD Week 3 NFL Line Moves

After two weeks of pro football, we have some haves and have-nots, which have led to Line Moves for the week ahead. Come back for the Free Picks on Friday.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans – Indianapolis -3.5 | Sun, Sept 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

With the Colts off to a stunning 2-0 start and Tennessee expectedly at 0-2, Indianapolis was juiced from -2 to -3.5 point favorites in Nashville. Daniel Jones could be this year’s QB redemption project, playing with a club that has an offensive line, running backs, and competent pass-catchers. Tennessee, by its low standards, has played pretty well half the time. Though Indy has heavy early backing, this is an AFC South showdown. Is this a – sell high – spot on the Colts?

Bet Percentage: Colts 84%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers – Atlanta -5 | Sun, Sept 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

One aspect all bettors should remember, and we say a few times during the season, the first number at most sportsbooks is a – Look Ahead line – which is released a couple of days before the last game is played. Atlanta was sent out at -2.5 against Carolina, but after their excellent showing at Minnesota, the Falcons have flown to -5. The Panthers’ Bryce Young started 2025 like most of his previous two seasons, ineffective. After his team had fallen behind 27-7 at Arizona, the Cardinals played a looser zone and Young took what was presented and brought his team within five points. The largest aspect of the line move has to be how well Atlanta’s defense is playing. The Falcons are on a 6-0 ATS road run. Can they keep it going?

Bet Percentage: Falcons 76%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots – Total 44.5 | Sun, Sept 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

With Pittsburgh having conceded 30 or more points in their first two games (it’s not just the defense’s fault), the total jumped two points to 44.5. The Patriots’ defense is #24 in yards allowed, and the Steelers are even lower at #29. Both these AFC offenses are far from explosive. If this contest is to reach 45 or more points, Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye have to take advantage of below-average pass defenses.

Bet Percentage: OVER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers – Total 45.5 | Sun, Sept 21 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS

Though it is just past the middle of September, this is a big division game for each of these AFC West squads. If the Chargers win, they would not only be 3-0, but 3-0 in the division and likely have a two-game lead on all competitors. In truth, for now, it’s even larger because head-to-head confrontations have a two-game swing. Anyway, the focus for this one is the total, which has zoomed from 43.5 to 45.5. That’s because the Broncos’ defense has not started well and shown vulnerability, completely different from the Chargers. Does the public have this one right?

Bet Percentage: OVER 95%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Dallas -1.5, Total 50 | Sun, Sept 21 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX

This would have been the – dud of the week – instead of the Game of the Week on FOX if Dallas had lost to the Giants last week. Two things can be true at once: the side and the total of a particular game can have significant early week line movement. The Cowboys’ resiliency and the Bears’ ineptness shifted the Jerry’s kids to -1.5 point favorites from +1.5 point away underdogs. The total jumped like CeeDee Lamb high-pointing a pass from 46 to 50. Is Chicago still as bad as ever? With these two of the worst five teams in yardage surrendered, the total lifting makes sense.

Bet Percentage: Dallas 90% and OVER 96%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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