GamblersWORLD Week 2 NFL Line Moves
To start a new season, favorites were 7-8 ATS (one game was a Pick) and the UNDER was 12-4. We move to Week 2 and investigate the largest line moves on the early week docket. Return Friday for our free picks.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins – Miami -1.5 | Sun, Sept 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
New England did not look good in their home loss to Las Vegas. However, Miami was significantly worse, losing at Indianapolis 33-8, playing like it was Week 18, having not been a playoff contender for months. The Dolphins’ offense has zero rhythm, and the Fins made Daniel Jones look like he’ll be the comeback player of the year. With that, Miami tumbled from an ordinary three-point home favorite to -1.5. Maybe history will work in Miami’s favor, since they are 7-1 and 8-0 ATS the last four years against the Patriots.
Bet Percentage: Patriots 70%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Cincinnati -3.5 | Sun, Sept 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Since 2018, all 31 teams that gained below 150 yards in a game had lost. Cincinnati broke the string with their fortunate 17-16 escape act at lowly Cleveland, who could have and should have won the contest. With Jacksonville handling Carolina with ease, NFL bettors sent Cincy packing as they slid from -6 to -3.5. Additionally, one cannot ignore that the Bengals are 2-11 SU in the first two weeks of the season the past several years.
Bet Percentage: Bengals 67%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore -10.5 | Sun, Sept 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Who saw this coming before the season? Cleveland should have beaten Cincinnati last week. Baltimore should have won at Buffalo, blowing a 16-point lead after 56 minutes were played. Which mattered more to bettors? It was the Ravens gagging again, which was their 12th blown double-digit lead since 2020, which is #2 in the NFL. Baltimore has fallen from a hefty 12.5-point favorite to -10.5. The Ravens are 15-4 SU at home vs. rival Cleveland, yet only 8-11 ATS.
Bet Percentage: Ravens 73%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Dallas -6 | Sun, Sept 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The G-Men were a popular choice at Washington to secure a cover in the season opener. Though New York had a couple of chances, nonetheless, it was the Commanders keeping Big Blue in the game rather than what coach Brian Daboll was accomplishing. With Dallas proving an unexpected battle at Philadelphia in the season-lifter, the Cowboys have risen from -3 to -6 against the Giants. In case you were wondering, there is no truth to the social media rumor that when Daboll announced Russell Wilson would be his quarterback for Week 2, the G-Men went from +4 to +6. The Boys are on an 8-0 run (6-1-1 ATS) vs. their division rival.
Bet Percentage: Cowboy 93%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans – Total 42.5 | Mon, Sept 15 | 7:00 PM ET | ABC
The main game on Monday’s doubleheader is the first one, with Tampa Bay at Houston. These are two division champions trying to force their way into the upper echelon of their respective conference. Both clubs had UNDER outcomes to begin the year, but it’s still surprising to see the total fall four points to 42.5. Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and C.J. Stroud threw for below 160 net yards and faced a lot of in-the-face pass rushes. Stroud again looks uncomfortable behind a mediocre Houston offensive line, which would appear to be the major reason for such line movement.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 71%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday
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