Week 15 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks
We are back with updates on all six games that had major Lines Moves in the NFL. Also, there is a bowl game Saturday, which we added, and wanted you to know that starting next Tuesday, Dec. 16, we will have three straight weeks of bowl games and CFP Line Moves with free picks! However, for now, make certain to check out all the NFL free picks, which are a sizzling 31-16!
NFL Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans | Texans -9.5 | Sunday Dec 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Houston moving two points to -9.5 is two reasons. One, they beat the Chiefs at Kansas City, and second, everyone has taken notice
that the Texans are 8-5 after a 0-3 start. Additionally, it helps that Arizona has lost five in a row and 10 of 11. Update: Houston rose a half-point higher to -10 home favorites over the Cardinals. Off three consecutive wins over Buffalo, Indianapolis and Kansas City, it seems natural this would be a let-down spot for the Texans. Yet, that Houston’s #1 defense is rugged over four quarters. If the Texans are disinterested, it would seem to be early, thus, grab the +6.5 with the Cards in the first half.
Bet Percentage: Previously Texans 94%, unchanged
Doug’s Pick – Cardinals cover +6.5 (1st Half)
NFL Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles -10.5 | Sunday Dec 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Philadelphia has dropped three in a row and is looking at being the #3 seed in the NFC. The Eagles’ issues are deeper than surface value, and this is starting to look the same as two years ago, the season after they won a Super Bowl. It’s not good when you are a falling home favorite against an outfit as bad as Las Vegas. Philly is down two digits to -10.5. Maybe it’s the Raiders coming back with Kenny Pickett against his former team. (That’s enough laughing.) Update: There’s been a partial buyback on Philly, up a point to -11.5. This is a big number, but no reason to think the Raiders offense will accomplish much. Besides, teams like the Eagles off an upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%), playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 37-10 ATS, which includes 3-0 ATS in 2025.
Bet Percentage: Previously Eagles 63%, now 87%
Doug’s Pick – Eagles cover
NFL New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars -12.5 | Sunday Dec 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
After beating the Chiefs early, before we knew for certain they were not a playoff team, Jacksonville went on to lose three of four. Completely blowing the game at Houston, forced the Jaguars’ hand, grow up or cower away. Jacksonville is on a 4-0 SU, and ATS is playing with confidence and swagger. With this in mind, the Jags have risen from -9.5 to -12 over the Jets. But ask yourself, are you giving that many points knowing Jacksonville’s history? Update: Not sure if this is bet against Gang Green or for the Jaguars, but the home team is up an additional digit to -13. With Jacksonville at Denver next week, this could be a workman-like showing by the Jags, winning by 10-13 points and failing to cover.
Bet Percentage: Previously Jaguars 85%, unchanged
Doug’s Pick – Lean Jets cover
NFL Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots | Total 49.5 | Sunday Dec 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Buffalo has not lost the division yet to New England, but it could be over after this week. Off the Bills’ wild 39-35 win over Cincinnati in snowy conditions, they head east. New England will come in rested after its late bye week, while averaging 28.5 PPG in its past four contests. Given both clubs’ scoring potential and the Bills’ defense, the total climbed two points to 49.5. Do you consider the Patriots are 8-1 OVER at home versus defenses allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry? Update: The total has not moved, signifying the market believes this is a fair price. The expected high is 30 degrees, but both teams know how to deal with the cold. Both quarterbacks have good games, which leads to OVER.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 53%, now 77%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
NFL Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | Total 41.5 | Sunday Dec 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
For Chiefs fans and backers, the worst fears were confirmed in losing at home to Houston. Kansas City can play with anybody; they just no longer find ways to win or discover ways to lose. The Chargers are finally ahead of K.C. late in the season, but now Denver has passed the Bolts. The total in this AFC West affair has plummeted from 44.5 to 41.5. These combatants are recently 5-1-1 UNDER, will that continue? Update: Despite the total holding steady, the bet percentage is solidly with OVER after opening the other way. This feels like public money expecting both QBs to succeed. Yet, each O-Line has issues, which is holding back the offenses, and K.C. is 6-0 UNDER when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 92%, now OVER 63%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER
NFL Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams | Total 55 | Sunday Dec 14 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
If you were thinking of wagering the Over on this NFC clash, you still can, but the value aspect is wiped out. This total hopped from 51 to 55 points. These are two of the top four scoring teams in the NFL, with the Lions 1st and the Rams 4th. Detroit’s defense is suspect after permitting almost 30 PPG the last three weeks. Update: The total of 55 has held steady, with a consistent stream of OVER bets. That Lions defense has us concerned facing Mathew Stafford and company. Plus, teams like Detroit off a home win by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%), playing a team with a winning record when the total is 49.5 or higher, the OVER is 31-9.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 85%, now 79%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (22-20 record): Texans, 49ers and Bears
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (21-21 Record): Titans/49ers OVER, Panthers/Saints OVER and Colts/Seahawks OVER
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