GamblersWORLD Week 12 NFL Line Moves

Doug Upstone / November 23, 2025 / NFL Betting Advice

GamblersWORLD Week 12 NFL Line Moves

By Doug Upstone

With Houston upsetting Buffalo, will it be another crazy NFL week? We will find out, but first, we’ll update this week’s NFL Line Move updates. Make certain to review our sizzling Free Picks, on 22-10 run.

NFL – (245) N.Y. Giants at (246) Detroit Total 50 | Sunday, Nov. 23 |1:00 p.m. ET /FOX

The total climbing in the NFC skirmish from 48.5 to 50 points means one of three things is expected to happen. First, Detroit will score a bundle of points coming off another loss, as they have done in recent years. Second, Jaxson Dart is expected to return, which adds the threat of the run to New York’s offense, which could lead to points. Lastly, Jameson Winston is the likely starting QB for the Giants, which opens the door for more points for each squad. Update: The total has ticked higher to 50.5. Because Detroit is 13-0 SU and ATS off a loss, the point spread was repositioned from -11.5 to -13 on the Lions. With Detroit this large a home favorite, it would be correct to match the bigger spread with a higher total. However, -13 on a 6-4 football team feels dicey?

Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 97%, now 94% and Lions 98%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER, slight lean Lions cover

NFL – (249) Seattle at (250) Tennessee Total 40.5 | Sunday, Nov. 23 – 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX

If not for two Sam Darnold interceptions, the Seattle defense might have held the high-scoring Rams offense close to 10 points at home. Chances are the Seahawks will be a bit flat after such a big game and facing the worst team in the NFL, Tennessee. This has led to a total tumbling of two points to 40.5. The Titans don’t accomplish much on offense, last in rushing and #30 in passing, with QB Cam Ward having SIX TD passes in 10 games. Update: The total has slid to an even 40. We are going to disagree about where the total is heading. Because when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, a team like the Seahawks, having covered the spread in four or five out of their last six games, winning 60-75% or more of their games in the second half of the season, the OVER is 27-6.

Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 95%, now 83%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (255) Jacksonville at (256) Arizona +2.5 | Sunday, Nov. 23 – 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

The NFL team fortunes can change in a week, and this nonconference clash is the perfect example. After the worst blown lead in franchise history, Jacksonville crushed the Chargers 35-6 to get back in the Wild Card picture. Arizona upset Dallas two weeks ago, in which QB Jacoby Brissett continued to shine for the Cardinals. But as expected, Brissett is not an every-week starting QB in the NFL, and his team keeps losing. This pushed Arizona from a Pick to +2.5, and it’s anyone’s guess what we will see from either club. Update: The Jags have been shoved to -3 in the desert. After two blowout losses to playoff teams, Arizona faces a possibly good, not superior, Jacksonville unit. The Jaguars should win this encounter by a touchdown, yet, the Redbirds were playing everyone tough just a few weeks ago. At +3, the Cards are worth a look, and if the number reaches +3.5, even stronger consideration.

Bet Percentage: Previously Jaguars 68%, now 52%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Cardinals cover

NFL – (261) Philadelphia at (262) Dallas +3.5 Total 47.5 | Sunday, Nov. 23 – 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

The Cowboys’ victory over Las Vegas should be kept in the context of what it was: they beat a bad football team. Still, the defense had five new faces who had a different energy and level of play. Despite heavy action on Philadelphia, evidently persuasive money helped Dallas drop from +6 to +3.5 point home faves in this NFC East encounter. With the ‘Boys better-looking defense and the Eagles’ offense stuck in neutral, the total nose-dived from 50 to 47.5. Update: The total adjustment fit the market, but Philly is down to -3. There is a great deal of sharp action on Dallas, yet, who is thrilled about the Cowboys at +3? Let’s change it up and take Dallas in a teaser and call for an Over on a short number.

Bet Percentage: Previously Eagles 81% and UNDER 80%, now 62% and 58% respectively
Doug’s Pick – Teaser Cowboys +9 and OVER 41.5

NFL – (265) Carolina at (266) San Francisco Total 48.5 | Monday, Nov. 24 – 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

These are two NFC clubs chasing a Wild Card berth, with both above .500. The total for this matchup was juiced three points to 48.5. Brock Purdy brought a punch to the 49ers’ offense, and Bryce Young played with immense confidence in upsetting Atlanta, throwing for a franchise record 448 yards. The Niners are 8-1 OVER after an NFC West affair. Update: Despite the flip on the money to the Under, the total rose again to 49.5. We liked the Over on the opening number and could swallow the first big move. Now, have to rethink everything and our numbers shoutout 27-20 Frisco. Next, we found that when the total is 49.5, in a game involving two teams generating 1.25 or fewer forced turnovers a game, where a team like Carolina forced one or fewer turnovers, the UNDER is 37-11.

Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 98%, now 61% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER