GamblersWORLD Week 1 NFL Odds Updates and Free Picks

Doug Upstone / September 5, 2025 / NFL Betting Advice

Week 1 NFL line move updates, predictions and picks

The wait is over as the season commences this week, and we rolled out our first pro football Line Moves article. We’ve got some updates, Free Picks and more for you today!

NFL – (453) Kansas City vs. (454) L.A. Chargers Total 46 | Friday, Sept. 5 | 8:00 PM |YouTube

It turns out you can have live movement everywhere in the NFL, even in Brazil. The total for this AFC West showdown jumped from 44 to 46 points over the long time this and other betting lines were in the oven. Update: This total has kept rising, now sitting at 47.5, despite nearly 80% of the cash going the opposite way. Maybe this will go over the total, but right now it seems a lower score, like 23-20, is the way to go. Still, something feels off.
More on this line move.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 62%, Now 79% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

NFL – (455) Cincinnati at (456) Cleveland +5 | Sunday, Sept. 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

football-cash This upcoming season, Cincinnati, led by Joe Burrow, is expected to have higher aspirations than just making the playoffs, while Cleveland will start 40-year-old Joe Flacco as the best option on the roster with two rookies behind him. Cincy was sent from -2.5 to -5, which sounds heavy for a Week 1 for a road favorite, but it is the Browns. Update: A couple of Vegas books are at 5.5; otherwise, this number has held. What has changed is that the total is up a whopping three points to 48. Everybody loves Joe Burrow this year, so that has something to do with it. These rivals have not played a contest with the total this high since 2021 (7 games). We know the Browns are not a quality outfit, yet the Bengals’ slow starts have been a thing, and we cannot back them.

Bet Percentage: Was Bengals 87%, Now 75% and OVER 64%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Browns and UNDER

NFL – (469) Tampa Bay at (470) Atlanta Total 47 | Sunday, Sept. 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

The Buccaneers have a sharp-looking offense led by Baker Mayfield. Atlanta believes Michael Penix Jr. is ready to utilize the quality toolbox of options before him. Despite this, the total crumbled two points to 47. This bears watching. Update: No real movement on this divisional contest despite now a heavy OVER wager. We like both offenses and are backing the higher score.
More insights on the early line move.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 54%, Now 76% OVER
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (473) San Francisco at (474) Seattle Total 46 | Sunday, Sept. 7 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

We’ll find out if the 49ers are still an NFC contender or just a division challenger. Seattle is quite different from a year ago with a new quarterback, offense, and defensive scheme. All this change and uncertainty has lowered the total from 46 to 43. These rivals have gone 3-1 OVER of late in Coffee Town. Update: Once lowered, this total is unchanged. As noted, both offenses have to play together, and each defense is good enough to force field goals.

Bet Percentage: Was 63% UNDER, Now 66%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (479) Baltimore at (480) Buffalo Total 50.5 | Sunday, Sept. 7 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

Of all the great matchups this week, this has the most juice. The total opened at 53 and slid to 50.5, with the UNDER 2-0-1 in the recent affairs. Both clubs have several players listed as – questionable – which might be another reason for the drop. Update: The total has remained the same despite a big influx of money going the other way. You know it’s public money because they look at the QBs, and how can this matchup not produce close to 60 points? Bills coach Sean McDermott is 13-3 UNDER against AFC North division opponents. That works for us.
More on this early line move.