Week 1 NFL Line Moves
On Memorial Day, if the NFL was brought up for most people, the thought was “too soon”. When the middle of August was upon us, and the topic of the NFL came up again, the response changed to “can’t wait”. Well, the wait is over as the season commences this week, and we roll out our first pro football Line Moves article. Make sure to return for updates, free picks, and more! Let’s Go!
Kansas City vs L.A. Chargers – Total 46 | Fri, Sept 5 | 8:00 PM ET | YouTube
It turns out you can have live movement everywhere in the NFL, even in Brazil. The total for this AFC West showdown jumped from 44 to 46 points over the long time this and other betting lines were in the oven. What is fascinating about this total climbing is that the past three encounters have not sniffed the highest score of 36 points. These clubs are on a 6-2 UNDER run. With the Chargers’ offensive line woes to begin the season, fewer, not more points, seem correct.
Bet Percentage: OVER 62%
Doug’s Pick – Friday
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns +5 | Sun, Sept 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
In Ohio, football is serious business from the high school level to the NFL. This upcoming season, Cincinnati, led by Joe Burrow, is expected to have higher aspirations than just making the playoffs. The Bengals’ defense doesn’t appear appreciably better, but that will play out. Who doesn’t look good is Cleveland, who will start 40-year-old Joe Flacco as the best option on the roster with two rookies behind him. Cincy was sent from -2.5 to -5, which sounds heavy for Week 1 for a road favorite, but it is the Browns.
Bet Percentage: Bengals 87%
Doug’s Pick – Friday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons – Total 47 | Sun, Sept 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Three straight NFC South showdowns between these combatants have gone OVER, and four of the past five. Most of those totals were in the low 40’s or upper 30s, except the last meeting, which was 47 and won by Tampa Bay 31-26. The Buccaneers have a sharp-looking offense led by Baker Mayfield. Atlanta believes Michael Penix Jr. is ready to utilize the quality toolbox of options before him. Despite this, the total crumbled two points to 47. This bears watching.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 54%
Doug’s Pick – Friday
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Total 46 | Sun, Sept 7 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
This is our fourth consecutive division skirmish, this one in the Great Northwest. After last year, San Francisco has a great deal to prove, and we’ll find out if the 49ers are still an NFC contender or just a division challenger. Seattle is quite different from a year ago with a new quarterback, offense, and defensive scheme. All this change and uncertainty has lowered the total from 46 to 43. These rivals have gone 3-1 OVER of late in Coffee Town.
Bet Percentage: 63% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Friday
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills – Total 50.5 | Sun, Sept 7 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Of all the great matchups this week, this has the most juice. Once again, these two of the best not only in the AFC, but in the NFL. Each has reached the point where it feels like it’s now or never, with Kansas City starting a season as vulnerable as ever. When contemplating this matchup, it seems like they play every year, and they have collided in three of the past four seasons. The total opened at 53 and slid to 50.5, with the UNDER 2-0-1 in the recent affairs. Both clubs have several players listed as – questionable – which might be another reason for the drop.
Bet Percentage: 52% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Friday
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