CFB Playoffs & NFL Wild Card Line Moves and Free Picks
We have a mixed bag for you this week in Line Moves, with NFL Wild Card contests and one of the two semi-finals in the college football playoffs. Review our NFL free plays in particular, we think you will enjoy them! (48-28 run)!
CFB Playoffs – (275) Oregon vs. (276) Indiana -3.5
Friday, Jan. 9 – 7:30 p.m. ET /ESPN
Though Indiana has gotten the attention of the public and public bettors, the Hoosiers slid a point midweek from -4.5 to
-3.5. That is not a shocking development if you are on board with thinking – Hard to beat a college football team twice in one season. Indiana has frequently shown how dominant it can be this season, with Alabama the latest victim. Here is what concerns us about the Ducks. In the last meeting, they had 81 net yards rushing on 30 attempts. Last week against Texas Tech, Oregon only tallied 64 rushing yards on 47 attempts (1.3 YPC), and their two touchdown drives totaled 33 yards. We don’t think they have enough in the trenches to move the ball consistently against Indiana. As far as beating a team twice in the same season, Washington did it to the Ducks two years ago and played for the championship. Hoosiers by 7.
Bet Percentage: Indiana 77%
Doug’s Pick – Indiana covers
NFL – (377) Green Bay at (378) Chicago Pick, Total 45.5
Saturday, Jan. 10 – 8:00 p.m. ET /Prime
It seemed like a bit of a surprise that Green Bay opened as a favorite at -1.5 or -1 for this Wild Card clash, having lost four in a row. By Sunday night, the Packers fell to a Pick and have gone to -1 or a Pick since, depending on the sportsbook. The total has also dropped like the January temperatures in the Windy City, down a digit to 45.5. A case can be made that the opening number is accurate with the Packers favored, since bad fortune followed them in their loss at Soldier Field. The Bears’ defense is weak unless they are forcing turnovers. The Packers’ defense can be run on with undersized defensive tackles against a good Chicago offensive line. Look for an OVER in this matchup, with both QBs having success. The poor first three quarters showing against Detroit will add to Chicago’s incentive, and against an injury-plagued Packers secondary, without a Micha Parsons pass rush, Da Bears win.
Bet Percentage: Bears 52% and UNDER 62%
Doug’s Pick – Bears cover and OVER
NFL – (379) Buffalo at (380) Jacksonville Pick
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 1:00 p.m. ET /CBS
Buffalo has Josh Allen and ample playoff experience, AND they won’t have to face Kansas City. But Jacksonville has won and covered eight in a row. The Bills have won eight of 10, yet have infrequently played 60 minutes of top-shelf football. Buffalo opened at -1 and slid to a Pick. The weakest aspect of the Jaguars is their pass defense; however, they permit 218 YPG, while Buffalo throws for 216 YPG. Push. One could make a case that Jacksonville is the best team in the AFC at this moment. Buffalo has playoff experience, yet it has lost five straight road playoff games.
Bet Percentage: Jacksonville 76%
Doug’s Pick – Jaguars cover
NFL – (381) San Francisco at (342) Philadelphia -4.5, Total 44.5
Sunday, Jan. 11 – 4:25 p.m. ET /FOX
Let’s get the line movement news out first. The Eagles flew a point higher to -4.5, with the total crumbling to 44.5. Despite the vast
inconsistencies of the Philadelphia offense, the 49ers’ defense is unlikely to contain Saquon Barkley and the Philly passing offense over four quarters. Conversely, as well as Brock Purdy and the Niners offense clicked until last week, in Nov./Dec., the Eagles permitted 14.5 PPG. The spread does seem a touch high, and we’ll see if it comes down to the original starting point. At -4.5, just a lean with the home team; however, at -3.5 or lower, Philly for sure. Our guess is Coach Nick Sirianni will want to run the rock with Barkley, likely with success, wanting to keep Purdy and McCaffrey on the bench. With that thinking, we’ll say UNDER.
Bet Percentage: Eagles 55% and UNDER 44.5
Doug’s Pick – Lean Eagles and UNDER
Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order): Rams, Jaguars, and Hoosiers
Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order): Texans/Steelers UNDER, 49ers/Eagles UNDER and Rams/Panthers OVER
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