Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 30 – Jan .1

Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 30 – Jan .1

One last college football Line Moves for the season! We researched the biggest moves that bettors forced, to provide a preview and free picks (8-4 in bowls). Thanks to those who followed us this season, and make sure to return for college basketball and NBA betting articles, which will be starting soon.

CFB – (245) Tennessee vs. (246) Illinois +3
Tuesday, December 30 – 5:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Music City Bowl – Both these football programs had big aspirations coming into the season, knowing they had offenses that could secure a playoff slot in December. What was also known in August was that Tennessee’s and Illinois’ defenses had lost a great deal of skilled talent, and replacing it would not be easy. This turned out to be the detriment of each club, struggling especially against offenses of comparable ability. The SEC annually has a home-field edge of sorts in Nashville. However, with the Volunteers having more key opt-outs, they have slid from -5.5 to -3 against the Fighting Illini. We’d prefer more points, but getting at least a field goal still works. (Side note, take the OVER.)

Bet Percentage: Tennessee 59%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Illinois covers

CFB – (249) Iowa vs. (250) Vanderbilt -5.5, Total  47
Wednesday, December 31 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

ReliaQuest Bowl – What a magical season for Vanderbilt at 10-2 and not far off from making the CFP. The main storyline for this encounter is Commodores QB Diego Pavia navigating Iowa’s defense. Pavia is a magician as a runner and thrower. The Hawkeyes have not allowed 30 points to anyone and held Indiana to 20 points, USC to 26, and Oregon to 18. Bettors have pushed the Dores from 4 to -5.5, convinced the Vandy defense can limit the Hawkeyes’ offense. The total has fallen from 48.5 to 47, which is understandable. Expect a close, hard-hitting matchup, but Pavia makes the right plays to win 24-17, giving Vanderbilt the cover and a lower score.

Bet Percentage: Vanderbilt 63% and UNDER 58%

Doug’s Pick – Vanderbilt covers and UNDER

CFB – (253) Michigan vs. (254) Texas -7.5,  Total 48.5
Wednesday, December 31 – 3:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Citrus Bowl – Michigan’s hot mess coaching situation has been resolved, but does it help the Wolverines in any way? The simple answer is NO, because we don’t know what’s going on in the locker room. Texas lost seven starters from a talented, if not always cohesive defense. At least we know Arch Manning is the Longhorns QB, and we think Bryce Underwood will be in the maize and blue. The Horns were ridden from -5.5 to -7, with the total doing the same, up two points to 48.5. The total’s rise relates to the missing players. Each club has a slew of negative trends. Not sure who wants to play hard, thus, we’ll grabbing the points and agree with a higher scoring affair.

Bet Percentage: Texas 82% and OVER 90%

Doug’s Pick – Play Michigan covers and OVER

CFB – (257) Miami-FL vs. (258) Ohio State  Total  40
Wednesday, December 31 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

CFP Quarterfinals  – Off Ohio State’s lackluster offensive showing against Indiana and Miami getting a late touchdown at Texas A&M to win 10-3, the total plummeted from 42 to 40. And why not, the Buckeyes’ defense is permitting 8.2 PPG on the year, with the Hurricanes hardly paupers, conceding 13 PPG. As well as Julian Sayin played all season, at times in the Big Ten championship, he was uncertain. Carson Beck has shown he’s not a first-round NFL quarterback, and he’ll see ample Ohio State pressure in this one. This doesn’t figure to be a pretty game for the offense, with one team MAYBE reaching 20 points.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 79%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (259) Oregon vs. (260) Texas Tech +2.5
Saturday, January 1 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

CFP Quarterfinals – What a great game to kick off the New Year! As the more well-known brand, Oregon is juiced from -1 to -2.5 in this encounter. Since November 1, this reporter has stated on various outlets that three teams pass the eye-test as capable of winning the national championship. Texas Tech is one of them. That’s not a slight at Oregon, but the Ducks over the last few years have had problems with more physical teams, which is what the Red Raiders are. That’s the weakness of Dan Lanning’s teams: they struggle when they are not allowed to play fast and loose. Texas Tech deserves to reach the semi-finals and does.

Bet Percentage: Oregon 64%

Doug’s Pick – Texas Tech covers

CFB Top 4 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (44-41 record – 4-4 Bowls): Navy, Georgia, Texas and Miss. State

CFB Top 4 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (43-40-1 record – 5-3 Bowls): Wake Forest/Miss. State UNDER, Rice/Texas State UNDER, Oregon/Texas Tech OVER and Michigan/Texas OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.