Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 23 – Dec. 27

Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 23 – Dec. 27

It’s time to delve into Week 2 of bowl coverage of Line Moves. We have bowl matchups, and we’ve done our best to avoid elements changed by opt-outs and other outside factors. Check out our free picks, we were 3-2 last week!

CFB – (215) UNLV vs. (204) Ohio U. +7  Total 68
Tuesday, December 23 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Frisco Bowl – A lot was happening in this clash, with UNLV lifted from -4 to -7, and the total sent out of a cannon from 62.5 to 67. The Ohio U. head coach was fired for the worst two words you can hear in the business – just cause. That makes many aspects uncertain for the players who are staying, but might think of leaving. UNLV has everything solid with the coaching and players, which attributes the increased point spread. While the Rebels score 35 PPG, they permit 28 PPG. The Bobcats averaged 28 PPG and should reach that. However, they are permitting just 21 PPG against FBS teams. Getting Ohio at a full touchdown looks right. The total this high seems off, with UNLV 5-0 UNDER in away or neutral games having won four out of their last five games.

Bet Percentage: UNLV 84% and OVER 95%

Doug’s Pick – Ohio U. covers and UNDER

CFB – (217) California at (218) Hawai’i  Pick
Wednesday, December 24 – 8:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Hawai’i Bowl – Though California had a solid 7-5 record, the AD felt the program was not progressing and jettisoned the head coach. In steps Nick Rolovich, who used to be the Rainbow Warriors head coach and player. His QB will be Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who grew up 20 miles from the university in Honolulu. Hawai’i was released as a 2.5-point underdog, yet, is now up to a 1.5-digit favorite, with the total sinking from 55 to 52.5. Cal upset Louisville and SMU, but that was in Berkeley. The Warriors are modestly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they are 11-0 ATS off one or more UNDERs. As far as the total, Hawai’i is 12-2 UNDER at home after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.

Bet Percentage: Hawai’i 66% and OVER 66%

Doug’s Pick – Hawai’i cover and UNDER

CFB – (221) New Mexico vs. (222) Minnesota  Total 44.5
Friday, December 26 – 4:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Rate Bowl – What a great season for New Mexico at 9-3, and if not for a couple of poor coaching decisions by Utah State against Boise State, they would have played for the MWC title. The Lobos blossomed up first-year coach Jason Eck. They are chasing their second-ever 10-win season (1982) and first bowler since 2016. Both squads do a good job stopping the run, keeping it below 114 yards a game, which is not impossible versus Minnesota, which averages only 103 YPG on the ground. With this, the total slid three points to 44.5. We won’t argue since teams like the Lobos, when the total is 49 or lower, after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%), playing a team with a winning record, is 53-16 UNDER.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 93%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (227) Penn State vs. (228) Clemson -3
Saturday, December 27 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ABC

Pinstripe Bowl – From a quality brand name perspective, it’s hard for this Bronx Bowl to do better than this. Even though in August, this was thought of as a national semi-final game in January. Both clubs were either overrated or underachieved; in truth, some of both. Though this is usually reserved for lesser clubs, Penn State and Clemson both rallied to win their last three and four games, respectively, to meet or surpass bowl eligibility. Oddly, the opening number had the Nittany Lions at -1 before falling to +3 against the Tigers. Clemson, with QB Cade Klubnik and a solid defense, should give the Tigers the ability to move down the Nittany Lions, with the sponsor, Bad Boy Mowers.

Bet Percentage: Clemson 59%

Doug’s Pick – Clemson covers

CFB – (233) Miami-O vs. (234) Fresno State  Total 42.5
Saturday, December 27 – 4:30 p.m. ET / CW Network

Arizona Bowl – This is one of the few bowlers not on ESPN-related channels. However, it still has a cool brand to it, Snoop Dogg for a second time. Miami-O was an odd team for coach Chuck Martin, who is known for consistency. The RedHawks were either on or off, playing just three one-score games out of 13. Fresno State was 8-4, but when they lost, they certainly failed, losing by an average of 21.5 PPG. Nonetheless, the focus is on total, which has gone from 45 to 42.5. The lower total is based on two teams that don’t throw well, and its success is mostly predicated on successful rushing. This milks the clock, and we note Miami-O is 8-1 UNDER in December.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 95%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB Top 4 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (42-38 record – 3-1 Bowls): Florida International, Pittsburgh, Georgia Southern and UNLV

CFB Top 4 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (40-39-1 record): Miami-Ohio/Fresno State UNDER, Connecticut/Army UNDER, FIU/UTSA OVER and New Mexico/Minnesota UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.