Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 16 – Dec. 22

Line Moves: College Football Bowls/Playoffs Dec. 16 – Dec. 22

The bowl season moves forward in earnest this week with several minor bowls and the first round of the College Playoffs. We have a contingent of Line Moves and Free Plays for your viewing pleasure.

CFB – (203) Louisiana vs. (204) Delaware  Total 62
Wednesday, December 17 – 8:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Ventures Bowl – The total on this bowl has blown up from 58.5 to 62 points. Each team was 6-6 on the season and allowed more points than they scored. The offense scores one or two points below 30 PPG, while the defenses have permitted 30 to 32 PPG. (Delaware allows the latter). This is Delaware’s first FBS bowl contest at this level, with Louisiana having the potential to have more fans about two hours away. The Ragin’ Cajuns had to win their final four games to secure a bowl spot and averaged 34.2 PPG down the stretch, while conceding nearly 30 PPG. The Blue Hens gave up 35.8 PPG in C-USA action, making them a contender to surrender points. With Louisiana a 2.5-point favorite, they are 6-0 OVER when the line is +3 to -3.

Bet Percentage: OVER 85%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (301) Missouri State vs. (302) Arkansas State  Pick
Thursday, December 18 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Xbox Bowl – Missouri State assumed their season was over because they were ineligible, becoming a new FBS member this year. With teams opting out, the Bears received an unexpected invite and will be thrilled to be in Frisco, Texas. Missouri State had a five-game win streak, but they labored in losing their last two contests. Arkansas State was 6-6 and closed 5-2 and 6-1 ATS. The Red Wolves could be on a 7-0 win streak, but turnovers prevented that. Arkansas State has fallen from -2.5 to a Pick. The key is who passes most effectively without making turnovers. We’ll say that’s Arky State, who is stronger in both lines, and hope they make fewer miscues than Missouri State.

Bet Percentage: Arkansas State 51%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Arkansas State

CFB – (293) Tulane at (294) Mississippi  Total 55.5
Saturday, December 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET / TNT

CFP 1st Round – For the middle game on Saturday, the total has dipped from 57 to 55.5. These two met in the latter stages of September in Oxford, as they are in this encounter, with Ole Miss toppling Tulane 45-10. We can see the Green Wave giving a better showing, particularly in the first half, familiar with the location, and the Rebels may not take this rematch as seriously without their head coach. Ole Miss is likely to wear down Tulane in the second half to pull away 37-17 for the UNDER.

Bet Percentage: OVER 93%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (291) James Madison at (292) Oregon  Total 49
Saturday, December 20 – 8:30 p.m. ET / TNT

CFP 1^st Round – While James Madison has enjoyed an incredible season, Oregon is going to have too much size and speed, which is why the Ducks are 21.5-point favorites. One would assume a sinking total to 49 from 51 would suggest the Dukes might have problems putting up points despite averaging 37.3 PPG, albeit vs. lesser competition. Oregon only allows 15.2 PPG, and JMU tallied just 31 offensive points against Louisville and Washington State, the two strongest clubs they faced. The right side for the total comes down to the Ducks’ level of interest and how the Dukes’ handle the Oregon crowd. We’ll say the home team hits a few big plays in the second half to send this battle into the 50s.

Bet Percentage: OVER 53%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (209) Washington State vs. (210) Utah State  Total 51.5
Monday, December 22 – 2:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Potato Bowl – When one thinks of bowl destinations, Boise in December is nowhere near the top of the list. At least both of these northwest schools are familiar with the weather and won’t be affected as those from the Deep South might. The total has tumbled four points to 51.5. Washington State lost a head coach for a second straight year, as a revamped Pac-12 is less appealing, we surmise. In fact, this will be a de facto Pac-12 conflict, with the Aggies joining officially on July 1, 2026. The driving force on the total is that the Cougars are on an 8-0 UNDER run, and Utah State finished the regular season 5-1 UNDER. Hard to imagine Wazzou playing differently than they have all year, and we’ll take a lower score.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 75%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB Top 4 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (40-36 record): Oregon, Old Dominion, Jacksonville State and Washington St.

CFB Top 4 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (39-36-1 record): Tulane/Ole Miss OVER, Memphis, N.C. State OVER, Louisiana/Delaware OVER and Missouri St./Arkansas St. UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.