MLB Betting Report – Yankees Dominate, Tigers Shock, and Fading the A’s & Rockies Still Pays
We’re just about two months into the MLB season, and a few storylines are starting to separate from the pack. The Yankees look like a runaway train in the AL East, Detroit’s surprising everyone with the best 100-game stretch in baseball, and teams like Oakland and Colorado remain money pits. Whether you’re into full-game sides, totals, or props, there’s plenty to chew on heading into the weekend. Let’s dive into what’s moving the needle.
Red Sox to Compete With Yankees?
Count this writer among those who gave Boston a legitimate chance to compete with the Yankees in the AL East. As we stand today, the first-place Pinstripes are 11 games ahead in the division over their rivals.
The Red Sox made several moves to improve their team, and most baseball experts, sharp handicappers, and oddsmakers thought this was a
team on the rise.
Offensively, New York is #3 in runs scored and Boston #8, which doesn’t sound dramatically different unless one knows the separation is just over 0.75 runs a game. If you extrapolate that over the rest of the season, the Yanks would score 78 more runs than the BoSox from this point forward.
The wider gap is in pitching. New York permits just over 1.0 runs per game less than their chief rival, which is massive. In pure numbers, Yanks starters are #6 in run prevention, with Boston #21. The numbers look a little better with relievers with New York #5 vs #14. Yet, that is misleading because the Red Sox lead the majors with 14 blown saves in only 58 contests, compared to the Yankees at only six.
It sure seems Boston’s path now is to solve these problems, get hot late in the season as a wild-card squad.
Who’s Been the Best Team in Baseball over the Last 100 Games?
This is a bit of a trick question because almost half the games would have been played last season, which is easy to forget since you don’t count the postseason.
The Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers would seem to be the top contenders. And we know how good Philadelphia has played both last year and this season. While all are close, here is the answer.
*Detroit Tigers: 67-33
*Los Angeles Dodgers: 64-36
*New York Mets: 62-38
*Philadelphia Phillies: 62-38
We are not sure the Tigers will hold up without more starting pitching and having the depth of arms the other three clubs have, nonetheless, Detroit has proven to be the best in that stretch.
Ball Park Changes Expose Athletics’ Real Weakness
It was expected this upcoming season and probably beyond, with the Oakland Athletics moving to Sacramento, the hitters would love it, and the pitchers would disdain it. Thus far, all true.
In Oakland, pitchers enjoyed the heavier marine air, bigger park, and cavernous foul territory, which resulted in a great number of outs. Sutter Health Park has maybe 20 percent of the foul grounds, the Sacramento air is lighter, which means more distance on balls in the air.
The A’s hitters might be #8 in home runs, but they are #2 in being taken deep and next to last in runs surrendered.
This is why this squad, eventually moving to Las Vegas, is 9-19 at home, at -11.8 units. A Play Against crew.
The Houston Astros’ Star Power Fades, And So Do Their Prop Values
Houston ownership made it known they would no longer be paying and playing for American League titles and the World Series in trading Kyle Tucker just as he was reaching his prime years.
That doesn’t mean the Astros don’t want to charge $40 or more for parking and $20 beers from the loyal patrons, or not have at least a competitive AL West outfit.
Christian Walker was supposed to help at first base, Yainer Diaz is an improving catcher, and 35-year-old Jose Altuve would probably still hit, not worrying about diminished infield skills.
Though we still have over 100 games on the schedule, each of these three Astros is on either side of 100 points down from last year in OPS. Not having Alex Bregman on the lineup card and Yordan Alvarez playing in only half of Houston’s games (and no real date for his return), batting .210 in the ones he did, makes the Astros a hard sell for any offensive player or team props daily.
Colorado Finds New Ways to Lose: Now 9–47, Down Nearly 30 Units
Since we last talked about Colorado, they were 1-5, with the lone win a week ago in the series home opener, 3-2 over the Yankees of all teams, at +245. For the week, the Rocks were -2.55 and their current record is 9-47, -29.5 units.
The frustration is felt by going to Wrigley Field this week, limiting the top-scoring team in baseball, the Cubs, to eight total runs and being swept in the series. Next stop, the asphalt jungle to meet the Mets before traveling to Miami.
Cubs Make History With Late-Inning Explosion in Cincinnati
Just talked about the Chicago Cubs winning, yet having their worst offensive series of the season at home against a sickly Colorado club.
However, last weekend in Cincinnati, the Cubs won the series on the shores of the Ohio River, scoring 28 runs, with two improbable come-from-behind wins. How improbable? The Cubs scored 21 runs AFTER the six innings in the series, destroying the Reds’ bullpen. It turns out the Cincinnati stats crew, having reliable box scores going back to 1930, never found an opponent that tallied that many runs late in games in a three-game series versus the Reds that did not go extra innings.
MLB Betting Trends to Follow This Weekend
>Cleveland is 16-3 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since last year.
>N.Y. Yankees are 4-15 away after a game with a combined score of four runs or fewer.
>Kansas City is 10-1 UNDER at home after scoring four runs or less in five straight games.
>Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs per game.
>QUINN PRIESTER and the Brewers are 0-10 as an underdog of +100 to +150.
>FRAMBER VALDEZ of Houston is 21-4 UNDER vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .320 or lower.
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