MLB Midseason Betting Tips & Analysis — June 20, 2025
Taking a Bite Out of the Big Apple: NY Teams Struggle
For the most part, the New York Yankees and New York Mets have sailed along this season. Every team will go through rough patches
throughout a 162-game season. Strangely enough, both have gone through a nasty period at the same time.
The Yankees lost three in a row at Boston and three straight to the L.A. Angels at home before finally winning the last game of the series to end the six-game losing streak.
The “Bronx Bombers” over three games against those two clubs were unbelievably shut out three times, and they set an American League record. The Yanks had three consecutive scoreless games, striking out at least 10 times in each setback. That had not ever been done by an AL club since 1900.
A sizzling Tampa Bay crew and Atlanta swept the Mets.
Don’t Overrate the Angels’ Hot Streak
A few weeks ago, we discussed the Angels being a .500 team with so much information to the contrary. Bettors might get excited about them winning three of four at the New York Yankees.
The Halos are in contention for a Wild Card spot as the midseason closes in. Though exceptions to the rules happen every year in baseball, it’s best to follow the norms. The Angels start a weekend series at home against Houston at 36-38. They are +7.6 units, which is great; nonetheless, they are -60 in run differential. To put that into perspective, the closest team to that number is Pittsburgh at -61, and they have a 30-46 record. Manager Ron Washington’s club is a baseball-best 15-6 in one-run games, which keeps them afloat.
One last final number on the Angels, they finished 6-1 at Dodger and Yankee stadiums, nobody will top that.
Why Home Runs Are Falling Short in 2025
If you watch and listen to as much baseball as this writer/handicapper, one thing you’ve heard time and again is announcers saying, “When that left the bat, I thought that was a homer.”
Turns out that’s true thus far. Information such as this can be found at Baseball Savant, and balls hit on the barrel are traveling four feet shorter than last year and seven feet less since 2023. Opinions will vary, but many believe the seams of the ball are modestly higher and ever so thicker, which would cause drag and less distance if true.
Because baseball owns Rawlings, the maker of the ball, they can control the product. One last point, all previous data, going back to 2016, is based on a complete season, and the biggest home run months are July and August, making it possible that this could be an overreaction. Nevertheless, fun to know.
Betting Bright Spot in Colorado
It was one heck of a week for Colorado; they won four in a row and took a four-game road series at Washington. A 4-3 week netted backers 4.15 units of profit, lowering their deficit to -26.9 units. With more success, the Rockies could catch Atlanta and, at least for a time, not be the worst bet in MLB.
Colorado returns home for division battles against Arizona and the L.A. Dodgers.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 20-20 Threat
When Pete Crow-Armstrong was brought up by the Chicago Cubs, he was thought of as a “walking double”. His blazing speed not only allowed him to cover a lot of territory in centerfield, but if he hit a single or walked, it was certain he would reach second base by stealing.
At 6’0, 185 pounds, most thought he should focus on getting on base, shorten his swing, and lose the uppercut, because few power hitters hit low in the batting order.
But PCA is a different dude, confident in all his baseball abilities, and he’s happy to let anyone listening know he‘s the real deal at 23. With 20 home runs and 23 stolen bases, he’s the first Cubs to reach the 20-20 this early in a season. (beating Sammy Sosa) With 60 RBIs, he’s 4th in the National League and should be looked upon regularly for steals and total bases, particularly versus right-handed starters.
One prop that doesn’t get much attention, and for good reason, is – Will Pitcher X earn a win. (Credit for a victory) Because so many pitchers only last five or six innings, even if they and their team have a lead, as we have witnessed, bullpens are often problematic, taking victories away from starters.
In trying to win this prop, you need starting pitchers who not only win but also have a larger-than-normal amount of decisions. Such a pitcher is Carlos Rodon of the Yankees, who has 9 victories, but also has 14 decisions in 16 starts. Winning games comes first; however, a close second is getting decisions.
MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend
>Colorado is 1-11 as a home underdog of +125 to +175.
>Washington is 3-14 in June games.
>Texas is 12-2 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse.
>San Francisco is 16-5 in home night games.
>JOE RYAN of the Twins is 8-1 UNDER when the total is 7 to 8.5.
>CLAYTON KERSHAW of the Dodgers is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher.
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