Baseball Bytes – MLB Betting Info and Tips – June 13, 2025

MLB Betting Report – Hot Teams, Key Trends & Pitching Concerns (June 13, 2025)

As we hit mid June, the MLB season continues to surprise bettors and fans alike. Unexpected contenders are heating up, the injury bug won’t go away especially for pitchers, and key betting trends are emerging. From the surging Blue Jays and Rays to ongoing issues with pitcher health, here’s everything you need to know heading into the weekend.

AL East Different Than Expected

It was assumed the New York Yankees would be good. Baltimore was supposed to bounce back from their second-half tumble of a year ago, and Boston was universally thought of as a true threat to unseat the Yankees. Tampa Bay and Toronto were going to fill the last two slots in the division.

Maybe, public and sports betting perceptions will still play out as anticipated; nonetheless, the Rays and Blue Jays are ignoring the memo. 

Tampa Bay is solidly in third place at 36-32 (+1.8 units) in the AL East by winning 15 of 21. The Rays have given the opposition a devil of a time with pitching, ranked #8 in ERA, with the bullpen at #4. Offensively, Tampa Bay leads the majors in stolen bases, putting a lot of pressure on defenses with Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Brandon Lowe driving in runners and playing long ball.

Toronto’s on a sizzling 13-3 sojourn, now in second place at 38-30 (+8.7 units). The Blue Jays offense is a bit above average at 4.35 RPG, yet, in their last 13 contests, they are flying high at 6.8 RPG. The contributions are coming up and down the lineup, with the pitching staff avoiding big innings.

This weekend, each squad has a tough road assignment (Jays @ Phillies and Rays @ Mets), however, bettors could find some nice underdog wagers from hot teams.

MLB Continues to Ignore a Major Problem

Literally, each and every day of this baseball season, with 30 teams, pitchers are not only going on the IL, but needing Tommy John surgery or complete rest for 30-45 days without throwing, hoping the elbow or nerve will heal without surgery.

The defending World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers, have FOURTEEN (as in 14) pitchers on the IL right now. That is absurd, and it’s happening all over baseball.

From a fan perspective, the product is diluted; we watch pitchers that have no business in the big leagues pitching. From a betting perspective, it’s hard enough to win, then you add openers and bullpen games, which becomes a crapshoot.

The worst aspect is that baseball allows it. Today, 80% of pitchers are not or barely allowed to face an opposing lineup for a third time. Why, because the analytics say they give up more hits and runs facing the same batters three times in a game. And it’s true.

The obsession with velocity and having five different pitches, all used at max effort, places too much strain on elbows and joints. And it’s become acceptable to say a pitcher will have Tommy John surgery once or twice in their career. It’s part of being a pitcher. (Really?)

If that’s not bad enough, pitchers are torquing their lower bodies like never before to reach 1 extra MPH on a pitch or 2 inches more movement on breaking pitches, and hurlers are popping up on the IL with hamstring strains.

The time is now to dial back the velocity, have every pitcher use his skill and guile to pitch at least into the seventh inning, and stop trotting out bullpen pitchers that are 50-50 to give up a run in any outing.

It will take four to five years to make an adjustment starting in the minors, but baseball improved the product for the fans once in the past few years and can do so again.

The San Francisco Giants Know How to Win

The San Francisco Giants start the weekend one game behind the L.A. Dodgers at 40-29. One difference is that San Francisco is +3.8 units of profit, while the Dodgers are in the red.

Buster Posey took over as GM with no previous front office experience, but he won three rings in five years, not with the best roster in the majors, but instead with a collection of baseball players who learned and knew how to win games.

These Giants are not those Giants. But the front office and manager have this team 17-13 in one-run games. That’s important because knowing how to win can breed success. Right now, it’s working in the Bay.

Colorado Rockies Watch (Is back)

Since sweeping the Miami Marlins in Florida, Colorado has returned to its losing ways at 1-5 and is 13-55, -31.8 units. Kudos to the Rocks for coming from a 7-2 deficit against the best bullpen in baseball, San Francisco, to win 8-7 on Thursday.

Colorado heads East again to take on Atlanta and Washington and might pick up a win or two (just don’t bet on it) to improve on their 6-28 away record.

Prop Department

Giants ace Logan Webb has been among the best pitchers in the NL and a workhorse by today’s standards. If there was a criticism of Webb, he’s never been a big strikeout pitcher. From 2021-24 he only had seven double-digit strikeout games. However, that’s changed with Webb posting four already this campaign. How?

Webb has added a cutter, lowered the number of change-ups, with greater usage of the sweeper. The final piece is using the sinker more inside to batters. When Webb pitches next, consider the OVER on punchouts.

The Boston Red Sox are 38-32 OVER or YES for runs in the first inning (YRFI). What is remarkable about that is all the problems Boston had starting games. The Red Sox have allowed 54 runs in the opening frame this season, with only Colorado worse. If you are wondering why the BoSox are struggling, when you are frequently behind after one inning, that’s an uphill battle. Watch for YRFIs with most Boston starters, especially with those permitting too many walks. 

MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend

>N.Y. Mets are 14-1 in home games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or fewer errors a game.

>Arizona is 1-7 in home games after allowing two runs or less.

>Toronto is 7-0 in away games on the RL after five or more consecutive road games.

>Atlanta is 28-7 UNDER as a home favorite of -200 or more.

>MITCHELL PARKER of Washington is 6-0 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5.

>FREDDY PERALTA of Milwaukee is 6-0 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record.

Get more MLB betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.