Baseball Bytes – MLB Betting Info and Tips – July 25, 2025

Doug Upstone’s MLB Betting Information and Tips – July 25, 2025

How is Milwaukee the Best Team in Baseball (and Best Bet)?

Going into the season, Milwaukee figured to be a smidge better than .500 and the second-best team in the NL Central. The Brewers, for years, have developed players and made trades for players who fit in their budget.

After having success with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes coming through the ranks, Milwaukee cherry-picked other teams’ starting pitchers who were, at best, middle-of-the-rotation hurlers, but found ways to improve them, and they became more than serviceable. The Brew Crew is the two-time defending champs and has won four of the last six NL Central crowns.

Expectations were rather low for 2025, but manager Pat Murphy kept his squad above .500 early. Since June 1, Milwaukee is a baseball-best 30-13, with the best record in the majors at 61-41, and is the best club to back financially at +18.4 units. How is this possible? Review these numbers.

The Crew (as Bob Uecker loved to call them) is…

#2 in starting pitcher ERA

#3 in overall pitching ERA

#2 in Outs above average (fielding)

#3 in Run Differential

#3 in Stolen Bases

#6 in on-base percentage

In other words, excellent in all phases of baseball. Milwaukee plays to its strengths, forces foes to out-execute them, and has a complete understanding of its limitations.

If you want a comparable club, think of San Francisco in the last decade, which won three World Series (2010-12-14). Some teams might have more talent than the Brewers, but nobody is as prepared mentally for each game.

Melt Down in MoTown

On July 7, after winning the first two home games against Tampa Bay, Detroit lost its next four before the All-Star. The Tigers still had the best record in the majors, and even the best teams go through down cycles.

Since the break, Detroit has kept losing. The Tigers have tumbled into the black hole by losing nine of 10. Detroit has not only lost the throne as baseball’s best, but they are no longer even the best club in the American League. They open up what has turned into an important four-game series with Toronto starting Thursday, for the bragging rights, for now, as to who is the top club in the AL.

What happened? The Tigers went into the deep freeze, averaging 2.6 RPG. The pitching has not helped either, permitting six or more runs six times in this stretch.

Getting Kerry Carpenter back soon in the lineup and so would their regaining confidence, something that visually appears lost for Detroit.

First Inning NRFI and YRFI Betting

NRFI Leaders

1)Kansas City 65-38

2)Cleveland 61-41

3)N.Y. Mets 61-42

3)Pittsburgh  61-42

5)Milwaukee  60-42

YRFI Leaders

1)L.A. Angles 58-44

2)Boston 59-45-41

3)Arizona 57-46

4)Atlanta 55-46

MLB Trade Deadline Talk

Having just been swept by Houston at home, it makes sense for Arizona to be sellers. They have four assets that most playoff contenders would covet: 3B Eugenio Suárez, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Zac Gallen and 1B Josh Naylor.

This allows the D-Backs to hold their core players while looking to stock up on young pitchers who could be in the big leagues in two to three seasons, where Arizona could make another playoff run.

Here is a list of the teams presumed to want to make moves to position themselves for a World Series run.

*New York Yankees

*Los Angeles Dodgers

*Chicago Cubs

*Detroit Tigers

*New York Mets

*Seattle Mariners

We look forward to reporting next week on the winners and losers.

Colorado Rockies Watch

We mentioned last week that the past week was probably not a good week to bet against Colorado. It turns out we were correct, as they had one of their best two series weeks of the season in beating both Minnesota and St. Louis twice to end up 4-2.

The Rockies picked up +4.1 units for the week, leaving them at -30.1 units, more than seven units ahead of last-place Atlanta.

Colorado will have a puncher’s chance at Baltimore, who is no prize before heading to Cleveland. A .500 record is possible despite Colorado’s 12-38 road mark. Who knows, maybe in a week or two, we will stop following the Rocks altogether because of their improvement. 

MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend

*Pittsburgh is 18-5 at home after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs.

*NY Yankees are 8-20 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

*Boston is 13-2 at home vs. teams outscoring foes by 0.5 or more runs a game.

*Chicago White Sox are 2-20 at home against NL Central opponents.

*Washington is 10-0 OVER vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season.

*San Francisco is 30-8 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175.

*ZACK LITTELL of the Rays is 13-2 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10.

*SHOTA IMANAGA of the Cubs is 6-0 UNDER in road games.

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