MLB Playoff Races & Weekend Betting Tips – Aug 29, 2025
AL East
Toronto has a four-game lead over Boston and the Yankees, but both clubs picked up two games with the Blue Jays losing series to lowly Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Toronto’s next four series are versus playoff contenders, Milwaukee, at Cincinnati, at the Yankees,
and Houston. Backing the Blue Jays seems iffy.
Boston’s trio of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito are three solid starters, making them dangerous if they reach the postseason. The other two days won’t be comfortable for BoSox fans. Playing Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Arizona next, Boston could make a further move.
The Yankees have holes on the nights they don’t hit five or more long balls. After four winnable matchups at the White Sox, the Bronx Bombers are at Houston, home to Toronto and Detroit, before heading to Beantown. Nothing is easy there.
AL Central
Barring a total collapse, Detroit will win its division. The Tigers need to focus on getting their starting pitchers back in the groove, have the bullpen do the same, and try to acquire the AL home-field.
Kansas City and Cleveland aren’t out of the last Wild Card slots, but they need a 7-1 run real soon to be a factor.
Hard to say to bet on any of these teams, other than specific games.
AL West
Houston and Seattle have taken turns playing well for eight games and looking like garbage for the next seven contests. The Astros have the pedigree, but the Mariners have the starting pitchers, IF they perform to their capabilities.
Seattle has the easier slate, however, the next nine ball games are on the road and the M’s are 31-35, -5.7 units away from Coffee Town.
NL East
The New York Mets nearly cut Philadelphia’s division lead in half with a sweep of Philadelphia. The Phillies played like they were depressed about losing ace Zach Wheeler. The Phillies’ bullpen is a day-to-day adventure. Over the next two weeks, the Phils are at Milwaukee and home to the Mets (4 games).
New York has a five-game lead for the last Wild Card, but is only two back of the Cubs and Padres for the first WC. This four-game set with Miami is vitally important to win at least three. As the next 10 contests are an away excursion to Detroit, Cincy, and the City of Brotherly Love.
NL Central
Milwaukee has cooled off, yet it hasn’t mattered because the Chicago Cubs continue to labor. The Brewers’ bullpen has suffered injuries, and
while still deep, their strength in this department is a little weaker. After playing in Canada and Philly, the rest of September, the Brew Crew doesn’t face an opponent that is presently more than two games above .500. Bet the Brewers.
The surprising Cubs offense, which had a Top 3 in baseball until the All-Star break, has come crashing down. No more clutch hits or big innings. The starting pitchers are good, but mostly putting in shorter stints, and the bullpen is far more unreliable. Not sure where this changes.
Cincinnati is more of a tease than a postseason contender.
NL West
You have to give the Los Angeles Dodgers their due. They might not be the best team in the history of baseball as they were talked about in Spring Training, but they never die either. After sweeping Cincinnati, the team’s overall health is improving almost daily. By the middle of September, the Dodgers roster will be close as it’s been all year to 90+% health-wise, and that supports the oddsmakers keeping them as the favorites to repeat.
San Diego remains a riddle, with few answers. By team win percentages, the Padres have the easiest remaining schedule. Over the Pads next five series, they have @Twins, Orioles, home and home with the Rockies, and the Reds. If they are going to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West, this is where they do it.
MLB Betting Angles to Follow This Weekend
*Toronto 9-0 in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs a game.
*Seattle 2-13 in away games after a win by two runs or less.
*Arizona 1-9 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season.
*ADRIAN HOUSER of the Rays 11-1 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or lower. (Team’s record)
*EURY PEREZ and the Marlins 1-9 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season.
*CRISTIAN JAVIER and the Astros 13-2 when the total is 9 to 9.5.
*Cleveland 31-10 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.
*Chicago Cubs 7-0 OVER when the total is 10 or higher.
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