MLB Division Races, Rockies Fun, and Betting Trends
The Pennant Push: Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Padres in the Fight
As we hit the later stages of August, division races in the AL Central, NL East, and NL Central appear to have winners. Though a losing streak could change that, with roughly 30 games to play. If Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee play .500 the rest of the season, those chasing this contingent would have to win better than .750 percent of their remaining games and any head-to-head matchups.
The other three divisions have races, and each night is critical. Toronto leads the Yankees and Red Sox, yet is easily third in run differential in
the AL East. The Blue Jays concede more runs than their two rivals (though by a small margin). Can they hold off two more experienced teams used to the rigors of the final 30 battles?
The AL West is more about survival than winning. Both Houston and Seattle have struggled mightily in the last week. Each has ample flaws and would not be considered a play on teams. This race might come down to the third weekend in September in Houston when they go head-to-head one last time. Plus, the loser of this race, unless they start playing better, might not even make the Wild Card.
The Padres’ chances of catching or surpassing the Dodgers probably come down to this weekend. San Diego was swept at Chavez Ravine last weekend, and truthfully, anything less than a sweep will feel disappointing. That doesn’t mean the Friars cannot win the NL West if they win this series; it just becomes a mental hurdle looking at Dodger Blue.
Late-Season MLB Betting: Finding Real Value
Looking ahead at the schedule, there will be some dreadful matchups of teams ready to see the season end. Others will feature playoff contenders, along with one club that is out of it and another fighting for the postseason.
Pitching matchups aside, this is the time of year to reduce the number of games to bet and focus more on teams that have something to play for.
The reasoning is simple: you want two opponents that care about winning as much as you do. While it is true that any team can have a bad game on any day, at least having the knowledge that they are trying to win helps you with your bets.
If you are betting run lines and taking the favorite, make sure you are receiving something close to fair value. A -200 money line favorite should be no more than -110 on the -1.5 run (give or take a few pennies). This past week, the Dodgers were -260 ML favorites over Colorado, and typically should have been -130. Instead, L.A. was -195 on the -1.5 RL and -140 on a -2.5 RL. Avoid these like the plague and find far greater value.
Thanks, Colorado, You Served Us Well
Since May, it was clear the Colorado Rockies were the worst team in baseball. As the months went by, it was crystal clear that this was one of the worst teams baseball has ever seen.
We played along, making fun of the Rockies’ woes, and were all-in on recommending betting against them 80% of the time.
In the last 20 contests, they have won nine times and only need five wins to avoid being mentioned with the Chicago White Sox of last year, who were 41-121. This doesn’t mean the Rocks have turned a corner or ownership wants to win. We say “thanks” to Colorado for helping to fill this space weekly.
MLB Betting Trends to Follow This Weekend
*Boston 13-2 vs. teams averaging 1.5 or more homers a game.
*Chicago White Sox 1-17 at home playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season.
*Cincinnati is 21-5 in away games when playing with a day off.
*San Diego is 0-6 at home, avenging a same-season three-game sweep.
*N.Y. Mets are 11-1 in away games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better.
*Detroit is 12-1 OVER when playing with a day off.
*BRAYAN BELLO and the Red Sox are 14-1 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse in the second half of the season.
*NATHAN EOVALDI and the Rangers are 9-0 in the second half of the season.
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