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Baseball Bytes – August 1 MLB Betting Tips and Trade Deadline Takeaways

Doug Upstone / August 1, 2025 / MLB Betting Advice

Doug Upstone’s MLB Betting Information and Tips – August 1st, 2025

Historical Start to 2025 Baseball Season

Here is something we have never seen in baseball in 125 years (courtesy of OptaStats).

The Milwaukee Brewers will enter August with an MLB-leading winning percentage of .593 (64-44). That is the lowest winning percentage by the MLB leader entering August in a season in the modern era. (1900)

Wow, right! This proves there are no great teams in the majors this season. From a betting perspective, how do you formulate an opinion on who can win a pennant or the World Series?

The smartest way is to grab an Excel spreadsheet.

Take the two leagues, divide those teams into two areas, find the three division leaders as of August 1, along with the Top 6 wild card teams in each league. List their record on the morning of August 1^st.

Then make additional columns for 8/15, 9/1, and 9/15. For each team, list their win/loss record for each date and see who is getting hot and who’s not. Eliminate those who are falling out. Those periods will give you an indication of who the best team(s) are to back for the postseason.

Breaking Down the Biggest MLB Trade Deadline Winners and Head-Scratchers

Using our previous piece above, any contending team could make a trade that matters for 2025. Philadelphia made a notable move to improve its #24 bullpen by adding Jhoan Duran from Minnesota. Duran is a shutdown closer, and that moves everyone in the Phillies pen down, which should make the collective group better. Harrison Bader adds outfield depth, but not much else.

Seattle, before the season, knew they needed offense and got by, but adding two bats like Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor can only help the Mariners score runs, though the defense will suffer some. With Seattle starting pitchers getting healthy and rounding into form, if the M’s hit, they have a new look.

It looks like the Yankees wanted a little pop at third base, but also someone who could save runs, making Ryan McMahon from Colorado a better fit. With closer Devin Williams’ struggles and the New York bullpen laboring in July, the Pirates’ David Bednar makes sense. Bednar was struggling badly early, but bounced back with a 1.70 ERA with 16 saves and 50 K’s over his final 39 appearances. The one question, pitching in Pittsburgh is not the same as Yankee Stadium, will Bednar adjust? (The same with McMahon)

San Diego made two major trades in acquiring Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano from Baltimore, as well as making a deal with the Athletics for closer Mason Miller and JP Sears. The Padres already had the #1 bullpen, not sure what Miller adds for today; however, he is under contract through 2029. As far as O’Hearn and Laureano, going from Camden Yards to Petco Park can be a shock to the system. We’ll see.

The Mets make out well in shoring up the bullpen with Tyler Rogers from the Giants and Ryan Helsley from St. Louis. Not only does that improve the Metropolitans bullpen, but the different styles these two bring to the Big Apple are appealing. Centerfielder Cedric Mullins upgrades that position at Citi Field.

In what was thought of as a “shocker”, Carlos Correa waived his no-trade contract to return to Houston, where he left, not being wanted. Correa will move to third base, and getting Jeremy Pena back from injury improves the Astros’ left side of the infield and offense.

If you are a fan of Minnesota or Arizona, it becomes hard to want to go to the ballpark in the last two months. However, especially in the D-Backs case, they got a nice haul and could be back into playoff contention as soon as 2027. Bet against material.

Surprisingly, the Cubs and Brewers did next to nothing, which is galling based on the parity this season.

Colorado Rockies Watch

Colorado returned to its losing ways, dropping series at Baltimore and Cleveland. Despite a 2-4 record, those two victories allowed the Rockies to stay even on units (0.0) for the week, leaving them at -30.1 units, comfortably ahead of last-place Atlanta.

Colorado returns home to face Pittsburgh, which is just 16-37 on the road. Unfortunately, the Rockies caught both Paul Skenes and Jeff Keller in the series. Otherwise, next week it’s first-place Toronto in Denver.