NBA Playoff Preview
The first round of the NBA Playoffs was quite unusual, with three Game 7s and a trio of six-game series. Not all the favorites made it, which adds a level of intrigue. Here is our look at each conference semi-final.
Western Conference Semi-Finals
By the numbers, these two series appear very uncompetitive. Not that Oklahoma City and San Antonio are not on a collision course, but injuries have a big impact on the series numbers. (Odds courtesy of Betonline.ag)
4) Los Angeles Lakers (+874 odds) vs. 1) Oklahoma City (-1500 odds)
The Lakers were 0-4 SU/ATS against Oklahoma City this season, outscored by a seemingly unimaginable 29.2 points a game. LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and Austin Reaves were only together for one game against the Thunder, which played a factor. LeBron has been the reason Los Angeles is here (along with Houston’s pathetic shooting).
Reaves return is a positive, but he’s looked rusty and getting healthy facing OKC’s defense, which was #2 in points allowed and #3 in field goal percentage, is hard to accomplish. Though some believe Dončić could return in the series, keep in mind the Lakers were outscored by 56 points in the 59 minutes Luka played against the Thunder this season.
Jalen Williams will remain out for OKC due to injury, and it makes little sense to risk him playing because of how important he was in winning their first title. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault can comfortably use ten players without Williams, which can help wear down James playing a point forward spot.
How to Bet:
The best way to bet this series is OKC +120 (4-0 sweep) or OKC +200 (4-1 outcome). Giving you a profit either way.
6) Minnesota (+874) vs. 2) San Antonio (-1500)
Denver was supposed to be here, but was outworked by Minnesota. Unfortunately, the Timberwolves are down two starters, not exactly what you want against the team considered the main threat to prevent the Thunder from a repeat as NBA champions.
The losses of Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo (for the season) definitely matter. Because Edwards is listed week to week and has missed the last two games, it would seem the earliest Edwards could play is Game 4.
Coach Chris Finch had his squad play outstanding defense, and Rudy Gobert turned back the clock in truly taking Jokic out of his game. San Antonio lost two of three (matching ATS mark) to the T-Wolves, with two games determined by three or fewer points.
Besides Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, the Spurs have excellent backcourt depth, giving them a scoring edge.
Minnesota is going to bang around San Antonio and see how they react to the physicality. If Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Ayo Dosunmu can supply offense, the Timberwolves could make this interesting. However, if there is no Edwards until Game 4, the Spurs might be ahead 3-0, so bet San Antonio to take the series 4-1.
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals
7) Philadelphia (+230) vs. 3) New York (-280)
With how Detroit has played, it’s not a stretch to believe that the winner of this series will reach the NBA Finals. The Philadelphia team that Sixers fans have waited to see play, has arrived. The key is Joel Embiid being healthy. However, it’s not entirely on the Philly big man any longer.
Tyrese Maxey is emerging as a star, VJ Edgecombe is a top contributor, and Paul George looks five years younger on offense and defense. Coach Nick Nurse outcoached his Boston counterpart in the series and finally has all the pieces to compete.
New York had their moments during the regular season, playing like the wayward bunch they can be. When the Knicks decide to play defense, they are a force, having a mix of players like Josh Hart who embrace the role, along with OG Anunoby.
But the real key is Karl-Anthony Towns, who took his game to a previously unseen new level as not just a scorer, but a facilitator, which took the pressure off Jalen Brunson.
If the Knicks play the same style as they did against Atlanta, that will put a great deal of stress on the 76ers’ defense. New York won’t just take threes like Boston, and the Knicks winning this series is the best bet.
4) Cleveland (+105) vs. 1) Detroit (-125)
In the other Eastern Conference semi-final, Cleveland and Detroit both needed seven games to advance. As you see by the odds, sportsbooks are not enamored with the Pistons, needing to come back from a 3-1 deficit to hold off an Orlando team that fired their coach the next day.
Detroit, over four and one-quarter games, was playing on its heels and not taking the game to the Magic. From that point, they figured out who they were again and attacked. The Pistons are not versatile on offense; it’s Cade Cunningham and whoever can get open and make shots nightly. What Detroit can do is play defense, and once they started attacking ball-handlers and took away outlets, they made more steals or forced bad shots, converting those into points in transition. That’s who the Pistons are, and being more careful with the rock is also necessary.
Cleveland’s been a top team in the East for several years now. Where the Cavaliers have failed is their lack of toughness, both physical and mental. The Cavs are at their best when Donovan Mitchell is making shots and feeding big guys Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the paint area.
James Harden added a distributor, but if he’s not getting his share of shots, ‘The Beard’ will dominate the rock.
The initial thought was that the Cavs could take the series. Cleveland was 3-1 ATS as the teams split four outcomes. However, the Cavs are not a tough-minded crew, and Detroit can wear them down, especially if center Jalen Duran returns to form. This will be a long series, with the Pistons coming out on top, unless they literally give it away with turnovers, which is what almost happened against Orlando.
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