March Madness Sweet 16 and Final Four Betting Predictions
For this NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, once again, all 16 bids are from the power conferences. While we like our March Cinderellas, what this sets up is that no champion will be allowed to catch a major break and will have to earn it.
Here is a look at the odds to win each region, and we will break it all down.
East Region Winner Odds and Predictions
Duke -125 Michigan State +475 St. John’s +475 Connecticut +500
Duke returns to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five years. We have talked about the loss of PG Caleb Foster, which has
impacted the Blue Devils’ fortunes. But Isiah Evans has ramped up his game to help complement Camerron Boozer. Getting back C Patrick Ngongba II adds rim protection and more rebounding for Duke.
St. John’s will attempt to ruin Duke’s expected Final Four appearance, but they won’t survive taking almost half their shots from behind the arc as they did against Kansas in barely slipping by. The Red Storm has to force teams to play at their preferred pace. That’s their best chance to get to Indianapolis.
What you can say about Michigan State and Connecticut, they know who they are. Both have flaws against certain competition, like a Duke, for example. But if they can force the opposition to play the way they want, their defenses can take over if the shots are falling.
We’ll give the Huskies a slight edge to play the Blue Devils for the East, with Duke the winner because the taller Boozer brother is the best player on the floor.
Mid West Region Winner Odds and Predictions
Michigan -145 Iowa State +250 Tennessee +700 Alabama +1500
Michigan was too often overpriced as a favorite this season. But oddsmakers understand the Wolverines are not a one-trick pony, having multiple ways to defeat different styles. Alabama made 19 threes in topping Texas Tech to earn the matchup with Michigan, and they might need more. The Crimson Tide averages 12 threes, having an outlier performance last Sunday, and faces a Michigan defense that allows 30.8% from deep (#34 nationally)
Tennessee will have a shot at the upset because it appears Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson’s status isn’t good after suffering a badly sprained ankle last Friday. The Cyclones are still very talented and tough-minded. However, the Vols are every bit as physically tough, known for their strength training, which gives them an edge in the paint on both ends of the floor. Tennessee can destroy foes on the glass at a +13.2 differential. With both teams below 70% at the free-throw line, no late lead is safe, and a deficit is easy to make up.
We will go with Michigan and Tennessee for the Elite 8 and take the Wolverines to advance.
South Region Winner Odds and Predictions
Houston +130 Illinois +230 Nebraska +370 Iowa +750
Illinois figured this would probably happen when the tournament bids went out; they would play Houston in Houston. Though the
Cougars are known for defense and the Fighting Illini for offense, these teams are each in the Top 9 in shots taken differential. Each team has a mix of experience and youth, and it is likely to come down to which players perform for who wins. In the end, the crowd, defense, and Kelvin Sampson should be the difference for the Cougs.
Nebraska has never been to a Sweet 16. Iowa last went when Gwyneth Paltrow won the best actress at the Oscars for – Shakespeare in Love (1999). The Hawkeyes pulled off the major upset of the tourney, taking down the #1 seed and defending champion Florida. This sets up a Big Ten battle with two fan bases that hate each other. The Hawkeyes entered the tournament on a 3-7 run. Let’s back Nebraska in a tight one.
Look for Houston’s defense to be too tough for the Cornhuskers.
West Region Winner Odds and Predictions
Arizona -160 Purdue +215 Arkansas +1000 Texas +2500
Arkansas will present Arizona with quite a challenge with its up-and-down style and few NBA-quality players. I can see the Hogs hanging around until the 10-minute mark when the Wildcats’ defense creates turnovers, which leads to a 10-0 run to open up the game. From there, the Cats’ physical defense and made baskets in the paint send the Razorbacks home.
Nice work by Texas to reach this point of the season despite a largely disappointing season. This will be where the rubber meets the road for the Longhorns, as Purdue has gotten back on track, still shooting well but back to playing quality defense. This could get ugly.
The West Final should be excellent, with two clubs playing well. In the end, Arizona’s superior defense and having a different scorer to lead the charge make the Wildcats challenging to defend, allowing them to advance.
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