Betting March Madness Opening Rounds to Reach the Sweet 16
The NCAA Tournament has arrived! Four teams have stood above the rest for months, and they were the top seeds. There will be upsets, but where might they come from? That’s our job to lead in the right direction, whether it’s the heavy chalk or backing an underdog.
East Regional Breakdown
The East Region is packed with great coaches, which has everyone’s attention. This is why many will still pick Duke to win the East, while
understanding all possible landmines.
The Blue Devils will take on either #8 Ohio State or #9 TCU, and both have played well down the stretch. This is definitely winnable for Duke, but easy, not necessarily.
A possible next game for Duke is under-seated #5 St. John’s, who will have its patience tested by Northern Iowa’s snail pace.
There is a great deal of interest in #6 Louisville tangling with #11 South Florida, who was the dual American champion. The Cardinals were .500 in their past eight tries, with the Bulls charging on an 11-0 surge. At +5, USF is popular with the sharps.
Round of 32 Must See Matchup: Who doesn’t want to see smoking hot St. John’s bunch battling Kansas? The Jayhawks are good, not great, but capable of reaching a higher ceiling. Kansas might be running into a perfect storm in the Red Storm, which is peaking currently.
Midwest Regional Breakdown
Akron won the MAC title and arrives in Tampa on a 10-0 win streak, brimming with confidence. Texas Tech lost its best player, Jadyn Toppin, and that seems to be affecting the #5 Red Raiders on a 0-3 SU/ATS skid. Double T is a seven-point fave, still, the money and tickets heavily favor the #12 Zips with the digits.
In an 8/9 affair, Georgia has better athletes than St. Louis, which got off to a 24-1 start. Since the Billikens are 4-4 and seem to have peaked. The Bulldogs were running hot on a 6-1 SU/ATS move until a steamy Ole Miss bunch derailed them in the SEC tourney. Both average over 87 PPG; nevertheless, 170 feels too high for a neutral site showdown.
Nobody spent more NIL money than Kentucky, only to be a #7 seed. The Wildcats are recently a sloppy 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS (3-3 ATS as favorites) and take on a solid Santa Clara crew, which has only fallen to Gonzaga or St. Mary’s since before Christmas. ‘Cats are up to -4.5; however, the Broncos can execute.
Round of 32 Must See Matchup: Tennessee has more skill than a #6 outfit. Yet, this is what Rick Barnes teams do at this point in his career: they find ways to lose games they should win. #3 Virginia is legit on both sides of the court and will create issues. The Cavaliers should be a sound wager here.
South Regional Breakdown
There are several intriguing matchups in this regional for various reasons.
#4 Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament, at 0-8 all-time. At last look, the Cornhuskers are almost a two-touchdown favorite (-13) over Sun Belt double-champion #13 Troy, who has size. Nebraska should win, but the Trojans will have a shot to cover.
#7 St. Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M is like a top-rated boxing match, where the contrast in styles is extreme. Your normal Gaels contest averages 143 total points. An Aggies affair is 167 points. The present total is 147 (down from 148.5), which favors St. Mary’s preferred style.
#6 North Carolina is not at full strength and takes on a tough #11VCU squad that plays great defense, forcing miscues and making threes. For a 6 vs. 11 encounter, you would expect the Tar Heels to be favored by more than -2.5. Upset special?
Round of 32 Must See Matchup: Whoever wins UNC against VCU will face #3 Illinois. The Fighting Illini have few peers in offensive execution, ranked #2 at KenPom. Nonetheless, the Illini have wilted frequently in games late and lost or barely hung on because of defensive deficiencies. All the Heels or Rams want is to be within five points with four minutes to play.
West Regional Breakdown
The first aspect to look at is the First Four game between N.C. State and Texas. Both squads stumbled down the stretch at 2-5, and it would seem the winner wouldn’t get far. However, the winner of Tuesday’s tilt will have a shot in the round of 64, because BYU is only 3-4 SU in its last game and is on a 1-7 SU slide in its past away/neutral contests. First 4 winners have advanced to the weekend with momentum.
Utah State is one of two #9 seeds that are favored over the #8 seed (Villanova). That is not a reach given the seeds, but it yells what the oddsmakers think of the two clubs. Yet, early on, the public is backing the Wildcats.
#12 High Point is attracting attention against #5 Wisconsin because they average 90 PPG and like to play at the same tempo as the Badgers. Sharp money still suggests Wisconsin because of the power of the Big Ten.
Round of 32 Must See Matchup: Chances are, we will have #5 Wisconsin taking on #4 Arkansas, the SEC tournament champs. The Razorbacks would be favored, but this will be an elite backcourt matchup. The Hogs are stronger and more athletic in the frontcourt, which would make the difference.
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