The Biggest Surprises in the Early Super Bowl 61 Futures Market

Betting Insights for the Super Bowl 61 Futures Market

It might feel early to talk Super Bowl 61, but the futures board is already telling a story. Every offseason, there are a few Super Bowl odds that make you stop, scroll back up, and double check what you just saw. Some teams are getting a lot of respect despite question marks, while others feel like they are being completely overlooked. Here is a look at the biggest surprises in the Super Bowl XLI odds market that jumped out right away.

Kansas City Chiefs +1600

The Kansas City Chiefs stand out as one of the bigger surprises on the early Super Bowl 61 odds board. After an underwhelming season and a significant injury to Patrick Mahomes, expectations could have reasonably been lower than usual. While Mahomes is targeting a Week 1 return, bouncing back from an injury of that magnitude is never guaranteed, especially at the quarterback position.

Despite those concerns, oddsmakers appear firmly optimistic about Kansas City’s outlook. The Chiefs remain positioned among the top contenders, signaling strong confidence in Mahomes’ recovery and the organization’s ability to retool the offense. Whether that faith proves justified or overly ambitious will be one of the defining storylines heading into the 2027 season.

According to GamblersWORLD sports betting expert Sean Higgs he says to “Absolutely FADE the Chiefs right now. When is Mahomes actually coming back and even if he does, is he going to be anywhere near 100 percent? This was a team I said to start fading in 2025 and I’m sticking to that again in 2026. The numbers don’t lie. Mahomes’ production has dipped over the last four seasons and the margin for error just is not what it used to be. He is not getting younger and he is not getting healthier. At this stage of his career, Brady was elevating his game. Mahomes, on the other hand, looks like he is trending the opposite way”.

Denver Broncos +2000

The Broncos’ odds feel a little off at first glance. This is a team that had arguably the best defense in football last season and was simply unlucky down the stretch, especially after Bo Nix went down in the Divisional Round. That injury really changed the trajectory of their playoff run.

Sure, the offense wasn’t always explosive, but Nix showed he can deliver when it matters most. He led eight game winning drives last season, proving he’s comfortable in big moments. If he’s healthy and the offense takes even a small step forward, Denver could easily outperform where these early Super Bowl odds have them priced.

Los Angeles Chargers +1500

The Chargers sitting inside the top six in Super Bowl 61 odds is another eyebrow raiser. Much like the Chiefs, oddsmakers are clearly projecting a big step forward. But there are still real questions that have not been answered.

Justin Herbert has yet to win a playoff game, and fairly or not, the narrative is that he has struggled to deliver in the biggest moments. Until that changes, it is tough to fully buy into Los Angeles as a true Super Bowl favorite.

The path also looks much tougher this season. After ranking 19th in strength of schedule last year, the Chargers now face a gauntlet that includes the Bills, Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, and Texans. On top of that, they still have to battle a potentially fully healthy Chiefs team twice and a rising Broncos squad twice in division play.

They’ve definitely got the talent, but with a tougher schedule and all the questions about winning big games, the Chargers’ high Super Bowl odds almost feel like wishful thinking rather than something they’ve really earned

Carolina Panthers +15000

Realistically, the Panthers are still a long shot to win it all but their odds feel a little too extreme. This is a team that won its division last season and nearly knocked off the Rams in the playoffs. Yes, it helps that the division is not exactly a powerhouse, but you still have to take care of business and Carolina did that.

More importantly, Bryce Young showed real growth as the season went on. He looked more comfortable, more decisive, and more in control of the offense down the stretch. Now he gets another full offseason as the clear starter, and it finally feels like the Panthers have their franchise quarterback and a foundation to build on.

The Panthers may not be true contenders yet, but the gap between where they are and where their odds suggest they are feels wider than it should be.