GamblersWORLD NFL Divisional, College Football Championship Line Moves and Free Picks

NFL Divisional Round, College Football Championship Line Moves and Free Picks

We’ve reached the end of the road with one more football Line Moves article for the season. In this piece, we cover three NFL skirmishes and the College Football Championship. Review our free plays, especially the NFL ones (50-30 run)!

NFL – (389) Buffalo at (390) Denver -1, Total 46
Saturday, Jan. 17 – 4:30 p.m. ET /CBS

What a fascinating line move mid-week, when Buffalo went from -1.5 or -1 to +1 at Denver. Josh Allen is a proven commodity at quarterback in the AFC. Coach Sean Payton is not going to make the same mistake Liam Coen did for Jacksonville, which was playing conservatively most of the first half last week. Payton is already on record saying the Broncos have to take the game to the Bills. Allen last week picked apart the Jaguars’ zone defense. Denver plays significantly more man defense and can really rush the passer. Keep in mind the Broncos are 12-1 SU as home favorites, winning by double digits. The total dropped a digit to 46. The lower total favors Denver since they are 8-1 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG.

Bet Percentage: Bills 54% and OVER 56%

Doug’s Pick – Denver covers and UNDER

NFL – (387) Houston at (388) New England  -3.5, Total UNDER
Sunday, Jan. 18 – 3:00 p.m. ET /ESPN

For the second AFC contest of the weekend, we have the side and total shifting. New England opened at -2 and crawled over the key number of three to -3.5 with a great deal of sharp money. The total headed downward from 42 to 40.5. Houston has an exceptional defense that can slow down any offense. It’s safe to say Drake Maye is playing better at quarterback than C.J. Stroud. Keep in mind the Texans’ offense only scored 16 points despite having 381 total yards at Pittsburgh. Plus, Houston has five turnovers in its past two away battles. The Patriots have improved against the run game after a tough stretch, getting back all the original defensive linemen. We’ll call for the Pats to win by 7, knowing Maye is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. And, teams like Houston, who are NFL Playoff underdogs on 8+ game winning streaks, are 3-10 SU & 4-9 ATS. Concerning the total, home teams gaining 370 or more YPG, against a team with a good defense (265 to 295 YPG), after outgaining foe by 150 or more total yards in their previous game, are 31-7 UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Patriots 62% and Under 71%

Doug’s Pick – Patriots cover and UNDER

NFL – (393) L.A. Rams at (394) Chicago  Total 44.5
Sunday, Jan. 18 – 6:30 p.m. ET /NBC

Let there be no mistaking, the total in the last divisional playoff game is almost exclusively about the cold temperatures, expected to be below 20 degrees at kickoff. The opening total fell like January Midwest temps, starting at 51 and dipping to 48.5. However, the majority of bettors are not backing the line movement, as you can see below. Why? It starts with two vulnerable secondaries, which are permitting a lot of yards and points, facing two quarterbacks who make plays, utilizing talented pass catchers. Winds of about 12 MPH are expected, yet each QB has a strong arm, which could mean more passes on the line with less air time. If the weather weren’t an issue, the total would likely be 52 or more. We’ll trust the QBs and leaky secondaries for an OVER.

Bet Percentage: OVER 54%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB Championship – (287) Miami-FL vs. (288) Indiana -8.5, Total 47
Monday, Jan. 12 – 7:30 p.m. ET /ESPN

With Miami up from +7.5 to +8.5 for the championship game, backing the Hurricanes playing on their home field should be an advantage for them. But this won’t be a typical Miami home game as it is expected to be 50 percent green and 50 percent red in the stands, and maybe a few more in crimson. The Canes have the defense to compete, and they will have to stop the run of Indiana and harass Fernando Mendoza on passing downs. However, when the Hoosiers have come to play, they dominate. Look for this to be close to the third quarter, when Indiana’s pass rush starts to speed up QB Carson Beck and the Hoosiers’ excellent secondary makes plays. Then the Hoosiers’ offense rises, Miami realizes they can’t win, and the undefeated team scores one more touchdown to cover. Indiana has only allowed more than 20 points twice, once to Penn State, playing a flat game, and in the last game in junk time against Oregon. Don’t look for that to change. The total opened at 48.5 and has slid to 47, but we’ll still take it with Indiana winning 27-16.

Bet Percentage: Indiana 88% and OVER 66%

Doug’s Pick – Indiana covers and UNDER