Second Year Quarterbacks Taking Over the NFL and Their Super Bowl Odds
This year’s NFL playoffs feature three second year quarterbacks starting games which is more than just a fun stat. It’s proof that the league’s balance of power is shifting. Young quarterbacks aren’t waiting three or four seasons to develop anymore. They’re stepping in immediately and competing with the league’s elite.
Why Caleb Williams Makes Bears +1200 Super Bowl Odds Worth a Serious Look
Caleb Williams has delivered a remarkable second season, already making a strong case for the best year ever by a Chicago Bears
quarterback. In just year two, Williams set the franchise record for passing yards in a single season with 3,952, while repeatedly proving he can deliver when it matters most. He engineered seven fourth quarter comebacks overall, six during the regular season and another in the Wild Card round against the Green Bay Packers, setting a new NFL mark for the most comebacks by a quarterback under the age of 25.
The growth from Williams has been undeniable, and much of that leap can be credited to head coach Ben Johnson. Known for his innovative offensive approach, Johnson has built an offense tailored to Williams’ strengths and elevated his play in a major way. Chicago sports writer Adam Jahans highlighted that connection in his article How Ben Johnson’s Growing Bond with Caleb Williams Is Changing the Bears for the Good, Better, Best, noting, “I’ve never been around a head coach quarterback spending this amount of time together that I know they spend.”
Can Bo Nix Lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl at +750
Of the three quarterbacks discussed, Bo Nix has arguably shown the least dramatic growth from Year 1 to Year 2. That is not a knock on his play, his numbers remain strong, but the leap simply has not been as pronounced as what we have seen from Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Nix finished the season with 3,931 passing yards, up modestly from 3,775 last year, while throwing 25 touchdowns compared to 29 a season ago.
Much of Denver’s success this year has been driven by its stout defense, which deserves significant credit for the Broncos finishing 14–3 and securing the number one seed in the AFC. Offensively, however, Denver was more efficient than explosive, ranking 14th in the league in points per game. That balance helps explain why the Broncos played a record tying 11 one score games this season.
Still, those tight contests also highlight Nix’s ability to deliver in high leverage moments. He has shown poise late in games and the confidence to make big throws when the margin for error is thin. That will be tested again this weekend in what could be the biggest game of his career, as Denver hosts Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. The Broncos enter the matchup as a slight 1.5 point home favorite, setting the stage for a defining moment for Nix on one of the league’s biggest stages.
Why Drake Maye Can Lead the Patriots to a Super Bowl at +600
Drake Maye has arguably made the biggest jump of the three sophomore quarterbacks, turning New England into one of the NFL’s most
surprising contenders. The Patriots finished the regular season 14–3, powered by Maye’s breakout campaign. He threw for 4,394 passing yards, fourth most in the league, and 31 touchdowns, ranking third overall. That jump has vaulted him to second in MVP odds at +350, a stunning rise from last season when he went 3–9 as a starter with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
A major reason for his rise is head coach Mike Vrabel, who took over in New England this season and immediately changed the direction of the franchise. Much like the Caleb Williams/Ben Johnson pairing in Chicago, the Vrabel/Maye connection has accelerated Maye’s development and helped lift the Patriots out of three straight losing seasons.
Critics point to New England’s schedule, noting the Patriots faced only two teams with winning records during the regular season, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, going 1–2 in those matchups. But teams can only play the schedule in front of them, and the Patriots have taken care of business. Last weekend, they delivered a dominant 16–3 win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round. Now Maye faces his toughest challenge yet against the Houston Texans, owner of the NFL’s top ranked defense, a matchup that should provide a true measuring stick for both the quarterback and New England’s Super Bowl aspirations.
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