Week 17 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks
With Christmas past, we look forward to the rest of the Week 17 schedule and have all the Line Moves updates. Once read, review the free picks, which are on a 38-21 run.
NFL Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | Chargers -2 | Saturday Dec 27 | 4:30 PM ET | NFLN
Houston has a two-game lead for the last playoff position in the AFC. The Texans barely survived the Raiders last week. There was a belief
that the Chargers might come up flat in Big D after defeating Philadelphia and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. It didn’t happen as the Bolts bolted by the Cowboys by 17. The chain reaction was the Texans sliding from -1 on the road to +2. Update: There has been a surge of Houston money, which has dropped them back to a one-point underdog. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense are off a shaky contest; they played early in the season. Jim Harbaugh is a smart coach and will use many of the same tactics others have used against the Texans. Additionally, the Bolts are 6-0 ATS at home when the total is between 38.5 and 42 points (39.5) and come away with a victory to beat the spread.
Bet Percentage: Previously Chargers 52%, now Texans 57%
Doug’s Pick – Chargers cover
NFL New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders | Raiders -1 | Sunday Dec 28 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
It’s the – Race to #1 Bowl, with the loser in prime position to have the 2026 top pick in the draft. With these two horrible teams, it would seem impossible that anyone would even care about betting either, yet the Raiders are now at -1 after opening at +2.5. Though Las Vegas gave a great effort against Houston, who truly believes they will provide another such showing? Update: The early heavy support for Las Vegas has given way to money backing the G-Men, who are favored again at -1. It would be fitting if this game ended in a tie, and if it did the Raiders would cover. Look for Jeanty to make a couple of big plays that give the Black and Silver a very slight edge.
Bet Percentage: Previously Raiders 90%, now 61%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Raiders cover
NFL Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | Total 48 | Sunday Dec 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jacksonville is not only playing to win the AFC South but attempting to earn the top seed in the conference. Indianapolis is not mathematically eliminated, just hanging. In two of the Colts’ last three games, they have been lit up for 36 and 48 points. The first figure was posted by Jacksonville, whose white-hot offense visits the Hoosier state. Despite not having massive early support by bet percentages, the total climbed from 45 to 48. Update: The bet percentages have caught up with the line movement, as you can see below. And with the total increased again to 48.5. Be aware that the Jaguars are 8-0 OVER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Expect a fourth consecutive Jags contest to reach the 50s.
Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 56%, now 88%
Doug’s Pick – Play Over
NFL New England Patriots at New York Jets | Jets +13.5 | Sunday Dec 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
After blowing a 17-0 lead at home the week prior, New England was down 11 points at Baltimore in the fourth quarter. The Patriots didn’t panic and tallied 15 unanswered points for the upset victory, keeping up hopes of being the #1 overall seed in the AFC. With the Jets 3-12 and yet to have an interception in 2025 (that’s true), Gang Green has blown up from +9 to +13.5 chalky home underdogs. Any takers? Update: No line movement since the spread reached its apex. Taking Gang Green as a huge division underdog makes a lot of sense unless you know that as divisional road teams laying -12.5 or more are 16-9 ATS the past 28 years.
Bet Percentage: Previously Patriots 96%, now 94%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Patriots cover
NFL Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers | Total 52.5 | Sunday Dec 28 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Chicago is the first team since the 1970 merger to win six games when trailing with less than two minutes to play, after last week’s miracle victory over Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 85 points in their last two contests, and the punter has not done his actual job in this month in a Niners game. When you think about all those things, who is surprised the total was elevated from 50 to 52 points? Update: The 49ers are averaging 33 PPG in their last seven outings. Chicago is a rock-solid 25.8 PPG for the season. Consider this, teams like San Fran after three consecutive covers as a favorite, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are a superb 26-4 OVER.
Bet Percentage: Previously Over 92%, now 94%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (25-23 record): Bengals, Patriots and Rams
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (23-25 Record): Ramsa/Falcons OVER, Bears/49ers OVER and Jaguars/Colts OVER
About Us
T&C
Privacy
Contact
Buy Picks