Week 17 NFL Line Moves
By the weekend, all the presents, great food, and gatherings will have passed, and we look towards the New Year. We also look forward to the rest of the Week 17 schedule and break down all the Line Moves ahead of the weekend. See you back here Friday with updated info and the free picks (38-21 run).
NFL Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | Chargers -2 | Saturday Dec 27 | 4:30 PM ET | NFLN
Houston has a two-game lead for the last playoff position in the AFC. Off last week’s extremely dull showing at home against Las Vegas, it
makes sense they want to return to playing how they were in prior games. There was a belief that the Chargers might come up flat in Big D after defeating Philadelphia and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. It didn’t happen as the Bolts bolted by the Cowboys by 17. The chain reaction was the Texans sliding from -1 on the road to +2. This bears watching; the money is barely backing the home team.
Bet Percentage: Chargers 52%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders | Raiders -1 | Sunday Dec 28 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
It’s the – Race to #1 Bowl, with the loser in prime position to have the 2026 top pick in the draft. With these two horrible teams, it would seem impossible that anyone would even care about betting either, yet the Raiders are now at -1 after opening at +2.5. Though Las Vegas gave a great effort against Houston, who truly believes they will provide another such showing? Here is a question that begs an answer: When was the last time Las Vegas drew this much wagering support?
Bet Percentage: Raiders 90%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | Total 48 | Sunday Dec 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jacksonville is not only playing to win the AFC South but attempting to earn the top seed in the conference. Indianapolis is not mathematically eliminated, just hanging on by a thread. In two of the Colts’ last three games, they have been lit up for 36 and 48 points. The first figure was posted by Jacksonville, whose white-hot offense visits the Hoosier state. Despite not having massive early support by bet percentages, the total climbed from 45 to 48. Be aware that the Jaguars are 8-0 OVER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.
Bet Percentage: OVER 56%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL New England Patriots at New York Jets | Jets +13.5 | Sunday Dec 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
After blowing a 17-0 lead at home the week prior, New England was down 11 points at Baltimore in the fourth quarter. The Patriots didn’t panic and tallied 15 unanswered points for the upset victory, keeping up hopes of being the #1 overall seed in the AFC. With the Jets 3-12 and yet to have an interception in 2025 (that’s true), Gang Green has blown up from +9 to +13.5 chalky home underdogs. Any takers?
Bet Percentage: Patriots 96%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers | Total 52.5 | Sunday Dec 28 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Chicago is the first team since the 1970 merger to win six games when trailing with less than two minutes to play, after last week’s miracle victory over Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 85 points in their last two contests, and the punter has not done his actual job in this month in a Niners game. When you think about all those things, who is surprised the total was elevated from 50 to 52 points?
Bet Percentage: Over 92%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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