Week 14 NFL Line Moves & Free Picks
We started the first week of December, breaking down NFL Line Moves. We have returned and provide you all the updates on those contests, along with our Free Picks, which are on a 27-14 run. Enjoy!
Washington at Minnesota – Spread -1.5 | Sun, Dec 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
It’s a little surprising that this NFC clash of two teams going nowhere would see line movement. At this time, the quarterback situation for
both teams is up in the air, with both Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy – questionable. One likely factor for Minnesota sliding from -2.5 to -1.5 is how bad they looked playing third-string Max Brosmer. The Vikings were shutout 26-0, gaining 162 total yards, with five turnovers. Update: With McCarthy cleared to play, it’s not a good sign that the line didn’t budge. (OUCH) Oddly, what did change is the total from 41.5 to 44. Do better think McCarthy will help or hurt Minnesota with the total climbing? Teams after being blanked are 33-17 ATS, so playing at home should help the Vikings, along with having the better overall defense. We’ll side with the OVER with each defense capable of giving up big plays, with Minny on a 12-2 OVER December run.
Bet Percentage: Previously Vikings 60%, now Commanders 64% and OVER 92%
Doug’s Pick – Vikings cover and OVER
Pittsburgh at Baltimore – Total 43 | Sun, Dec 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
With Baltimore giving the ball away five times to Cincinnati, at home no less, and Pittsburgh’s offense looking like one of coach Chuck Noll’s 1970s Super Bowl squads (at current age), the total has spiraled downward from 47.5 to 43. Aaron Rodgers has stayed too long, playing on a club with limited offensive options, including his own. Nonetheless, these are the two top teams in the AFC North. This series has a long history of low-scoring games, with the latest run 8-1 UNDER. Update: The total continued to slide to 42.5. This has a 23-17 or 20-17 feel about it. Take note that home teams like the Ravens are 23-4 UNDER versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite.
Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 93%, now 76%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER
Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Spread -1.5 | Sun, Dec 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
With Indianapolis losing three of four and Jacksonville performing the opposite by winning three of four, these AFC South rivals are knotted up at 8-4 atop the division. This is the first of two battles this month, and the Colts are falling road favorites, down a digit to -1.5. Indy has scored 20 or fewer points in three of its past four contests. Conversely, Jacksonville is averaging 29.2 PPG in its last five showings. Update: The betting market is satisfied with Indy as a road favorite at -1.5. We think the Colts’ injuries matter. Daniel Jones has regressed, and the defense has to play more zone with CB Sauce Gardner out. The Jaguars are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS hosting the Colts since 2015.
Bet Percentage: Previously Jaguars 71%, now 61%
Doug’s Pick – Jaguars cover
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Spread -9 | Sun, Dec 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Tampa Bay was 0-4 ATS in November with a single victory. The Buccaneers are only one game ahead of Carolina in the NFC South, and they will meet twice in the final three contests. The Bucs need Baker Mayfield to rekindle his early-season magic. Being able to blast New Orleans would help. NFL bettors believe that it is possible, as the home teams now sits at -9 after opening at -7.5. Know this: the Saints have covered four in a row in West Florida. Update: The Bucs were backed up to -8.5 despite New Orleans only averaging 15.2 PPG. Though Tampa Bay should be the side, the NFC South has long been known for visitors covering, with this matchup recently more than others fitting the bill. Maybe the Buccaneers roll, but we’ll say the Saints have more than a prayer to cover.
Bet Percentage: Previously Buccaneers 95%, now unchanged
Doug’s Pick – Lean Saints cover
Houston at Kansas City – Spread -3 | Sun, Dec 7 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Kansas City at 6-6 is #10 in the AFC, two games back of the last Wild Card slot with five contests remaining. One team ahead of them is Houston, which has the #1 defense in the NFL, along with its starting QB, C.J. Stroud, who has regained his confidence. K.C. was sent out at -5.5, which did not hold up, now at -3. The Texans are 7-2 since their 0-3 start. Update: Kansas City is back up to -3.5 as the week took shape. The Chiefs might have as many as three starters in the O-Line out, and even if they play, how strong can they perform against the Texans’ potent pass rush? Houston is the more confident club at this time, and having the hook could be the difference.
Bet Percentage: Previously Chiefs 66%, now 68%
Doug’s Pick – Texans cover
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (20-19 record): Rams, Buccaneers and Seahawks
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (19-20 Record): Commanders/Vikings OVER, Bengals/Bills OVER and Texans/Chiefs UNDER
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