GamblersWORLD Line Moves: College Football Championship Week with Free Picks

College Football Championship Week Picks & Predictions

It’s time for Championship Week in college football as we take time off from the playoff bickering and coaches changing jobs to make even more money. Here are this week’s biggest Line Moves and the Free Picks.

CFB – (103) Kennesaw State at (104) Jacksonville St. +2.5, Total 59
Friday, Dec. 5 – 7:00 p.m. ET /CBSSN

These teams met 20 days ago at the same location, with Jacksonville State winning 35-26 as three-point home underdogs. That victory altered the oddsmakers’ thinking, making the Gamecocks 2.5-point favorites, but by Monday, JSU was back to the dog role at +1.5. In the previous outing, Kennesaw State posted 579 yards of offense, but four turnovers did them in, along with not generating any miscues themselves. That was the visitor’s worst TO game and the home team’s best this season. Chances are this won’t occur again. Points will be plentiful with two big-play offenses and pedestrian defenses, thus we support the total lifted from 56.5 to 59. It’s hard not to like the Gamecocks at home, especially since they are 11-2 ATS in conference play. Nonetheless, if the Owls had only two T’s previously, they would have won the game. We’ll side with the public and the high score.

Bet Percentage: Kennesaw State 93% and OVER 93%

Doug’s Pick – Kennesaw State covers and OVER

CFB – (105) Troy at (106) James Madison -23
Friday, Dec. 5 – 7:00 p.m. ET /ESPN

These Sun Belt teams from different divisions have not met in two years. This is James Madison’s first trip to the SBC championship, in its fourth season in this conference. Troy has won or tied for the SBC regular season title five times and won it two more times in 2022-23, since a title game was instituted in 2018. James Madison opened as a massive 20.5-point home favorite. It did stop there, now at -23. The Dukes played nervously in their big contest with Washington State, winning 24-20 as 15-point faves. Expect James Madison to be fine, but giving over three touchdowns to a disrespected visitor seems hard to bet on, who has 5-1 ATS on the road. Just a lean with JMU winning 38-13.

Bet Percentage: James Madison 96%

Doug’s Pick – Lean James Madison covers

CFB – (109) UNLV at (110) Boise State -4.5, Total 58.5
Friday, Dec. 5 – 8:00 p.m. ET /FOX

This is the third consecutive meeting between these combatants in the MWC championship. Boise State won both encounters decisively. This feels different because the Broncos were quite fortunate to get in, squeaking by Utah State last week, while San Diego State fell at New Mexico. Oddsmakers set Boise State at -1.5 home choice, but that was before knowing regular starting QB Mark Madsen was expected to play on the blue turf where his teammates are 13-4-1 ATS as favorites. It climbed to -4.5. The total is up two points to 58.5. We prefer UNLV because Boise State was lucky to reach this point. Nonetheless, the Broncos know how to beat the Rebels, and playing at home, they take this by six to cover. Right now, we’ll say OVER, but follow the weather reports.

Bet Percentage: Boise State 72% and OVER 92%

Doug’s Pick – Boise State covers, lean OVER

CFB – (113) Miami-O vs. (114) West. Michigan Total 43
Saturday, Dec. 6 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPN

The MAC had a big scoring problem, with five teams scoring 20 or fewer points this season. The defenses were good, but inflated mostly due to mediocre quarterback play. The two teams playing for the MAC title were not exactly offensive juggernauts, with Western Michigan at 23.7 PPG and Miami-O checking in at 26.3 PPG. Each defense was stellar (given the competition), with the Broncos conceding 14.5 PPG in MAC action and the RedHawks at 20 PPG. With this, the total dipped from 45.5 to 43. We note both teams finished with two OVERs, and we think the coaches will be aggressive in attempting to win as opposed to playing not to lose and snag the higher score.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (119) Indiana vs. (120) Ohio State -4 Total 48
Saturday, Dec. 6 – 8:00 p.m. ET /FOX

This could easily be the national championship game, and not many would argue. (Except from the SEC) While Ohio State is the public pick, sharp money is backing Indiana, as they have slid from +5.5 to +4. At the same time, the total went south from 49.5 to 48. The dropping total works with Ohio State showcasing one of the most dominating defenses in all facets, permitting a hard-to-comprehend 7.8 PPG. Indiana is hardly a slouch at 10.9 PPG. The three best defenses the Hoosiers faced, Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin, they tallied 20, 27 and 31, far below their season average of 44 PPG. The Buckeyes’ defense is dramatically better than that trio; thus, take the UNDER. No question Indiana can play with Ohio State, but in the end, the Buckeyes have more playmakers to win by 10 points.

Bet Percentage: Ohio State 71% and OVER 71%

Doug’s Pick – Ohio State covers and UNDER

CFB Top 4 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (230-39-2 record): James Madison, Kennesaw State, Virginia and Miami-O

CFB Top 4 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (28-42 record): Duke/Virginia OVER, Georgia/Alabama OVER, Kennesaw St./Jacksonville St. OVER and UNLV/Boise State OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.