Week 12 NFL Line Moves
Are we just a week out from a Thanksgiving weekend? We move forward and break down this week’s largest early Line Moves for your enjoyment. See you back here on Friday for our free picks, which are a sizzling 22-10 run.
N.Y. Giants vs Detroit Lions – Total 50 | Sun, Nov 23 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The total climbing in the NFC skirmish from 48.5 to 50 points means one of three things is expected to happen. First, Detroit will score a bundle of points coming off another loss, as they have done in recent years. Second, Jaxson Dart is expected to return, which adds the threat of the run to New York’s offense, which could lead to points. Lastly, Jameson Winston is the likely starting QB for the Giants, which opens the door for more points for each squad. One or two of these elements are true.
Bet Percentage: OVER 97%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Seattle Seahawks vs Tennessee Titans – Total 40.5 | Sun, Nov 23 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
If not for two Sam Darnold interceptions, the Seattle defense might have held the high-scoring Rams offense close to 10 points at home. Chances are the Seahawks will be a bit flat after such a big game and facing the worst team in the NFL, Tennessee. This has led to a total tumbling of two points to 40.5. The Titans don’t accomplish much on offense, last in rushing and #30 in passing, with QB Cam Ward having SIX TD passes in 10 games. It does seem that unless Darnold keeps throwing to the other team’s jerseys, to set them up for points, the line movement is quite correct.
Bet Percentage: UNDER 95%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Arizona Cardinals – Jacksonville -2.5 | Sun, Nov 23 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The NFL team fortunes can change in a week, and this nonconference clash is the perfect example. After the worst blown lead in franchise history, Jacksonville picked itself off the floor and crushed the Chargers 35-6 to get back in the Wild Card picture. Arizona upset Dallas two weeks ago, in which QB Jacoby Brissett continued to shine for the Cardinals. But as expected, Brissett is not an every-week starting QB in the NFL anymore, and the turnovers started piling up against better competition, with Seattle and San Francisco hanging 44 apiece on the Redbirds. This pushed Arizona from a Pick to +2.5, and it’s anyone’s guess what we will see from either club.
Bet Percentage: Jaguars 68%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys – Dallas +3.5 | Sun, Nov 23 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Cowboys’ victory over Las Vegas should be kept in the context of what it was: they beat a bad football team. Still, the defense had five new faces who had a different energy and level of play. Despite heavy action on Philadelphia, evidently persuasive money helped Dallas drop from +6 to +3.5 point home faves in this NFC East encounter. With the ‘Boys better-looking defense and the Eagles’ offense stuck in neutral, the total nose-dived from 50 to 47.5. At the moment, the total could stay where it’s at or move up slightly, just not sure Philly will be handing out this few points. Check back on Friday.
Bet Percentage: Eagles 81% and UNDER 80%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers – Total 48.5 | Mon, Nov 24 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
You have noticed ESPN pushed this game hard this past week with different music, looking to entice people to watch, since Carolina has not been seen in many prime-time spots for a few years. Regardless, these are two NFC clubs chasing a Wild Card berth, with both above .500, giving the contest extra juice. Speaking of juice, the total for this matchup was juiced three points to 48.5. Brock Purdy brought a punch to the 49ers’ offense, and Bryce Young played with immense confidence in upsetting Atlanta, throwing for a franchise record 448 yards. The Niners are 8-1 OVER after an NFC West affair.
Bet Percentage: OVER 98%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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