GamblersWORLD Week 11 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Our NFL Week 11 Line Moves have been fermenting since Tuesday. We popped them out of the crock pot to see how they are doing and what adjustments, if any were made. Next, review our Free Picks, which are on a 19-7 run!

NFL – (451) Miami vs (452) Washington (+3) | Sunday, Nov. 16 | 9:30 a.m. ET | NFLN

It was not a shocker that Washington was manhandled by Detroit last Sunday. What was, watching Miami beating up on Buffalo one week after they looked Super Bowl ready in knocking off Kansas City. Here is what to question: was it the Commanders’ performance, the Dolphins’ effort, or a combination of both that sent Miami from a Pick to -3? Update: The Fins were backed down to -2.5, likely because a snapshot of their past four games is all over the place, good and bad. Maybe Washington snaps out of its funk, but it does sound like something to bet on.

Bet Percentage: Previously Dolphins 95%, now 53%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Dolphins

NFL – (455) Tampa Bay at (456) Buffalo – Total 48 | Sunday, Nov. 16 | 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS

When you think of Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, what comes to mind is players imposing their will on their respective teams to score points and win games. Yet, the total has shrunk from 50.5 to 48 points. What gives? In each team’s past four outings, the average total score of the Buccaneers contest is just under 40 points, with the Bills at below 45. Update: It turns out NFL bettors were looking at upstate New York weather forecast, and there are potentially strong winds expected along with snow. With this, the total dipped further to 47. Weather games are always tricky because if teams can run the ball, that negates an aspect of what could happen. We’d prefer to wait until Sunday to have a pick, having more info about the weather, but that’s not possible. We’ll say the offenses come through with enough touchdowns.

Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 69%, now 51%
Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

NFL – (457) Cincinnati at (458) Pittsburgh  Total 48.5 /Sunday, Nov. 16 – 1:00 p.m. ET /CBS

It would appear that if there is one defense that could help the Pittsburgh offense, it’s Cincinnati. The Bengals are last in points allowed and total defense. With Joe Flacco having the Bengals offense humming and facing Pittsburgh’s #32 pass defense, the total dipping from 50 to 48.5 is a head-scratcher. Update: Not unexpectedly, the total was bumped up to 49. Normally, we would recommend determining who could dictate the outcome. Cincinnati to score vs. Pittsburgh’s defense. However, with the Steelers’ pass defense woes and the Bengals’ 12-3 OVER vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher, we’ll grab the higher score.

Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 93%, now 72%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (461) Chicago at (462) Minnesota – Total 49 | Sunday, Nov. 16 | 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX

With Chicago conceding 27.4 PPG on the year, which jumps to 34.4 PPG away from the Windy City, that could help Minnesota’s unreliable offense. Though the Vikings are known for their pressure defense, they also surrender an ample amount of big plays and have given up 29 PPG the past four times they have taken the field. Add this up, and the total rises like the Viatris Corp. stock price from 47 to 49. Update: A modest tick backward to 48.5 as the week went along. While a lower score is definitely possible, this matchup could offer big plays that lead to immediate points or set them up. Minny is 9-1 OVER in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Bet Percentage: Previously OVER 94%, now 85%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (465) L.A. Chargers at (466) Jacksonville  (+3) | Sunday, Nov. 16 | 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS

The Chargers are 7-3, one game behind Denver despite having lost to All-Pro quality offensive tackles and other O-Line maladies. We’re all old enough to remember when Jacksonville beat Kansas City five games ago, and it appeared the Jaguars were FINALLY going to take off. Instead, Jacksonville is 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS and just lost a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter at Houston. When you throw this in the blender, the Bolts go from a Pick in North Florida to -3. Update: No changes for this AFC affair, just fewer L.A. wagers. In this confrontation, the Bolts have the better QB and head coach and are 7-1 ATS against teams giving up 24 or more PPG in the second half of the season.

Bet Percentage: Previously Chargers 85%, now 58%
Doug’s Pick – Chargers cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (16-14 record): 49ers, Cowboys and Ravens

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (13-17 Record): 49ers/Cardinals OVER, Bears/Vikings OVER and Seahawks/Rams OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.