GamblersWORLD Week 11 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Week 11 College Football Odds, Updates and Free Picks

Another college football weekend is here, and we have all the updates on Line Moves from earlier this week. You will also want to review our Free Picks, which are 10-6 the past three weeks. Also, see money trends below, they favor betting against the public, which was a Perfect 10-0 here last week!

CFB – (145) Indiana at (146) Penn State -15
Saturday, Nov. 8 – 12:00 p.m. ET /FOX

Given the current state of these two Big Ten teams, the biggest surprise is that Indiana didn’t open up at least as a two-touchdown road favorite. Because the Hoosiers blasted Maryland and Penn State was manhandled at Ohio State, especially in the second half, not sure how the Nittany Lions stay ahead of the adjusted line of +13 to +15 for the home team. Indiana is winning conference games by 32.4 PPG and in the role of a visitor, by 20 PPG. Update: The line has not moved, and the support for the Hoosiers remains strong. If you have followed Indy coach Curt Cignetti, he‘s one of those coaches who likes to make statement victories.

Bet Percentage: Previously Indiana 88%, now 82%

Doug’s Pick – Indiana covers

CFB – (179) Kansas at (180) Arizona -4.5
Saturday, Nov. 8 – 3:30 p.m. ET /ESPN2

Despite Arizona crushing Colorado last week, the Wildcats have slid two points to -4.5 in a home clash with Kansas. As to why this occurred, one reason might be that the Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in away games in the second half of the season since 2023. Another is that Arizona is 1-8 ATS facing winning teams. In the Wildcats’ favor, overall, they have the better offense and defense. Update: The betting market is the same as early in the week, with Kansas now the people’s choice. The Jayhawks have failed to cover three in a row; nonetheless, they are 8-1 ATS in away games in the second half of the season.

Bet Percentage: Previously Arizona 58%, Kansas 54%

Doug’s Pick – Kansas covers

CFB – (193) Southern Miss at (194) Arkansas St. Total 56
Saturday, Nov. 8 – 12:00 p.m. ET /ESPNU

This is an important contest in the Sun Belt West. Southern Miss is 4-0, with Arkansas State (and Troy) 4-1. The Red Wolves handed Troy their first setback last week and have reeled off four victories in a row, and would control its destiny with another W. Southern Miss would be in a somewhat similar spot, owning a tie-breaker between these two foes and having a home date with the Trojans. The betting focus is on the total with the biggest adjustment in the early week, from 59 to 56. Each team has conceded 21 to 22 PPG in SBC play; however, the Golden Eagles have a large edge in offense (35 PPG vs 23 PPG). Update: The total has dropped further, now at 55 points. The sinking total would seem to favor the home team, and Arky State is 8-1 UNDER after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

Bet Percentage: Previously 96% UNDER, now 89%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (199) Navy at (200) Notre Dame -26.5
Saturday, Nov. 8 – 7:30 p.m. ET /NBC

The Navy suffered its first defeat of the season at North Texas last Saturday and has its annual affair against Notre Dame next. The Fighting Irish are off a flat showing at Boston College and are up two points to -26.5 chalk-laden points in South Bend. The Midshipmen are #1 in rushing in the land at 317 yards a game and can control the clock and limit possessions. The Navy is 7-3 ATS at South Bend in the last two decades. Despite a low bet percentage, influential bettors see Notre Dame’s #25 in passing and the Middies at #111 stopping the pass. Update: Given the history, surprised to see the Irish up to -27.5. Notre Dame has no opponent; it holds with more respect. The Irish players are not allowed to trash-talk. With a bigger game at Pittsburgh next week, Notre Dame wins in the low 20s, and Navy covers.

Bet Percentage: Previously Notre Dame 54%, now 61%

Doug’s Pick – Navy covers

CFB – (203) San Diego State at (204) Hawai’i  -7
Saturday, Nov. 8 –11:00 p.m. ET /

The Aztecs are only permitting 10 PPG (#2 nationally) and seemed equipped to slow the Rainbow Warriors’ #7 passing offense, listed #9 against the forward pass. San Diego State wants to run the ball and use a controlled passing attack that milks the clock, often leaving the opposition with poor field position. All this has led the Aztecs to rise from -4.5 to -7 road favorites. Update: The betting markets are content with the visitor favored by a touchdown. The Rainbow Warriors have a long history of making games like this interesting at home, if they have enough offense, which they do this year. The line looks correct, and we’ll say San Diego State kicks a late field goal to cover.

Bet Percentage: Previously San Diego State 92%, now 87%

Doug’s Pick – San Diego State covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (20-28-2 record): Florida State, East Carolina, Oregon State, San Diego State and San Jose State

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (20-30 record): Indiana/Penn State OVER, Kansas/Arizona OVER, Nebraska/UCLA UNDER, Florida St./Clemson OVER and San Diego State/Hawai’i UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.