Week 8 NFL Odds, Updates and Free Picks
Once again, there was an ample amount of Line Moves on the same games for sides and totals. We have all the updates from earlier this week and our Free Picks that have gone 5-3 in two of the past three weeks.
N.Y. Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals – Cincinnati -6.5 | Sun, Oct 26 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
What a difference a week makes! Cincinnati trades for Joe Flacco to throw to his amazing receivers, and they upset Pittsburgh. The New York
Jets defense has conceded 26 total points in their last two games, but the offense has 17 in that span. Gang Green has grown from +2.5 to +6.5 road underdogs. New York has taken the total with them, up two points to 44.5. The Bengals are 31st in points and yards allowed. Yet, who is comfortable backing either side or the total to begin the week? Update: The Jets betting numbers have come down, but no movement on the side or total for this AFC clash. This is probably a game to stay away from altogether because of the Bengals’ putrid defense and the Jets’ sickly offense. Just leans because the Bengals can score and also give up points, leading to OVER.
Bet Percentage: Previously Bengals 96% and UNDER 91%, now 66% and UNDER 77%
Doug’s Pick – Leans Bengals cover and OVER
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans – Pick’em | Sun, Oct 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
For NFL bettors who have not gotten a good look at just how bad Houston’s offensive line is, this past Monday proved what a lot of us already knew: the Texans’ O-Line is one of the worst in the league. San Francisco has an ark full of injuries on both sides of the ball; nonetheless, San Francisco has tumbled from +2 to a Pick for Pick in Houston. The total has also gone south, currently positioned at 41.5 after beginning at 43.5. Update: The money has kept coming on Houston, who is now a 2.5-point home favorite. With that, the total has gone up modestly, sitting at 42. San Fran’s injury situation makes this guesswork. Even then, unless the Texans can put together a strong running game, the O-Line is a joke when pass blocking. Let’s take UNDER with maybe one club reaching 20 points. It seems like the ML is the best play for either side, and we’ll lean with the 49ers on that front.
Bet Percentage: Previously 49ers 94% and OVER 79%, Now Texans 51% and OVER 68%
Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER, lean 49ers
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers – Total 45.5 | Sun, Oct 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
With Bryce Young out at quarterback because of injury, veteran Andy Dalton steps in for Carolina. The fascinating impact of this for betting purposes is that the point spread has not moved (7), but the total collapsed from 48.5 to 45.5. The thinking is that Dalton won’t impact the side, but fewer points are likely. Interesting right? Update: The cash has moved upward to the point where the OVER is the majority, and the total resides at 46.5. Look for the week off to benefit the Bills’ offense, and Carolina is 12-3 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Bet Percentage: Previously UNDER 90%, OVER 57%
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts – Indianapolis -14 | Sun, Oct 26 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Though it’s a division game, Tennessee at Indianapolis has blowout written all over it. The Titans were sent out as chalky +12 underdogs. They were then bumped to +14, and don’t be shocked if that number rises. The Colts are #2 in points tallied, with Tennessee coming in at #31. Tennessee is 1-10 ATS, having lost two out of their last three games, falling by 13.2 PPG, leaving a tricky decision. Update: We said it could go higher, and it did with the Colts at -14.5. With this betting thought process, the total spiked from 45 to 48. Indy’s game total is 30.5, will the Tennessee offense make the difference in the adjustment? Or do the Colts handle this themselves? The team with horseshoe helmets hitting 35 points is not improbable, take them and the OVER.
Bet Percentage: Previously Colts 96%, now 91%, OVER 94%
Doug’s Pick – Colts cover and OVER
Dallas Cowboys vs Denver Broncos – Denver -3.5 | Sun, Oct 26 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have the #2 scoring offense in the NFL. Sure, the defense is #30 in points allowed, but if you score one more than you give up, that’s a win. The Boys have slid from +5 to +3.5 at a Mile High, with the total jumping like Saquon Barkley over another player, from 47 to 50. This is intriguing! Update: The spread remained the same, however, the total hopped to 51 on Wednesday and stuck there. With Dallas, they can score and surrender enough to make this an OVER play. The side is different, though a +5 is a nowhere number; if you like the Cowboys, that’s preferable to +3.5. Denver is 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less.
Bet Percentage: Previously Cowboys 63% and OVER 96%, now 66% with the total same
Doug’s Pick – Play OVER, lean Broncos
NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (10-11 record): Colts, Bills and Falcons
NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (8-12 Record): Packers/Steelers OVER, Titans/Colts OVER and Brown/Patriots OVER
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